THE PRESIDENT, Mrs Robinson, is now considered likely to be appointed to the vacant post of United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, according to sources in Dublin, Geneva and New York.
Mrs Robinson is due to discuss the Geneva based job with the UN Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, in New York on May 23rd, The Irish Times has learnt. Mr Annan will arrive in Geneva this evening for discussions with UN ambassadors about filling the post.
While many developing countries are unhappy at the prospect of a European being appointed, "they have not yet managed to produce a strong contender to challenge Mrs Robinson's candidacy. "If they can't produce an alternative soon, she will simply canter into the post", said one UN source in Geneva.
The campaign on behalf of the only other serious contender so far - the Costa Rican ambassador to the US, Ms Sonia Picado-Sotela - was dealt a significant setback yesterday when the Mexican and Chilean Foreign Ministers enthusiastically pledged their support for Mrs Robinson.
The two were canvassed for their support by the Tanaiste, Mr Spring, at the six monthly meeting. between EU foreign ministers and their Latin American counterparts in the Dutch town of Noordwijk. Promising his support, the Chilean Minister, Mr Jose Miguel Insulza Salinas, described Mrs Robinson as "an excellent candidate". The Mexican Minister Mr Jose Angel Gurria, described her as "a woman of outstanding character and achievement ... she is a citoyenne du monde."
To have a real chance of success, Ms Picado-Sotela would need the total backing of the Latin American and Caribbean states something she was believed to have until yesterday. She discussed the post with Mr Annan in New York last week.
The intensive Irish diplomatic campaign on Mrs Robinson's behalf began on March 15th, just three days after she announced that she would not seek a second Presidential term. On that day the Irish Ambassador to the UN in New York, Mr John Campbell, is understood to have met Mr Annan to discuss the matter.
While Mr Annan is technically entitled to nominate whomsoever he chooses for ratification by the UN General Assembly, the realpolitik of the situation dictates that he must first consult widely. NonEuropean states regularly complain that too many Europeans are appointed to senior UN posts and concerted opposition from them to Mrs Robinson would make it difficult for Mr Annan to appoint her.
Irish diplomatic efforts have concentrated on influential non European UN groupings the Latin American and Caribbean group and the African and Asian groups. Diplomats have sought to avoid portraying Mrs Robinson as an EU candidate, emphasising instead her record of empathising with the problems of developing countries.
Diplomatic sources report a "very positive" response to this approach and UN sources who were sceptical about Mrs Robinson's chances some weeks ago are now much more optimistic.
Any slim chance of Chinese backing for Mrs Robinson appears to have vanished after Ireland decided to support a Danish proposal to seek UN censure of China over human rights abuses. However, Chinese opposition is not a significant factor in this instance, since Security Council members do not have a veto.
Mr Annan is likely to select his nominee within three months and the UN General Assembly is expected to be asked to ratify his choice in September.
The post became vacant last month when Mr Jose Ayala Lasso stepped down to return to Ecuador, where he has been appointed Foreign Minister.