THE punter's politician and racing enthusiast, Charlie McCreevy, insists that as a punter, the best bet on the election will be a Fianna Fail and Progressive Democrat coalition.
The next most likely outcome will be a hung Dail, says the man all others go to for the "racing certainties".
If the current Coalition parties lose six seats between them, they would not be able to form another government, he says, "so you have to say that even as a mathematical likelihood they will not be coming back in".
Nevertheless, Fianna Fail and the PDs must win seven seats between them and there are no guarantees in the election game. It is quite possible the smaller parties will pick up a number of seats, he concedes.
However, it will be the undecided 15 per cent of the population who will swing the election and even Charlie McCreevy says he cannot call the result yet.
"The election will be decided in the three or four weeks of the campaign. It's only in the run up to an election that people's minds start concentrating on politics.
"So far there has been no discernable mass movement in the opinion polls," he states, brushing aside questions about falling levels of Fianna Fail support in recent polls. Asked where the party is hoping to pick up seats, Mr McCreevy refuses to name the likely winners.
"It's foolish for anyone in politics to say whose seat they will win the system is such that anyone can lose a seat simply because the people say that he or she has a safe seat. If you start identifying the seats which you could win or lose, you set up a local reaction that could move against you. At the end of the day, a TD only has enough votes when he's elected."
CHARLIE McCREEVY is scathing about Dick Spring's stated refusal to countenance a coalition with Fianna Fail after the election.
"As the doyen of political commentators, the late John Healy, said: `When the Irish Labour Party wrestles with its conscience, the Irish Labour Party always wins'. `There's no point ruling out Fianna Fail and Labour as a coalition, that is the bullshit principle of Irish politics," Mr McCreevy says, before launching into a long description of previous coalitions which would have been unthinkable.
In 1989, Fine Gael and the PDs had a pact and the PDs entered into government with Fianna Fail. "If you had predicted that Des O'Malley, who had been thrown out a year earlier by Charlie Haughey, would be in government again, you would have been arrested.
"In 1992, Labour got most of their support having pilloried Fianna Fail and that phrase, `a cancer on Irish society', was used. Yet, after the election, Labour came in with Fianna Fail.
"It may be extremely difficult for that coalition arrangement to work together again but you cannot rule it out as you have to see how the figures fall.
"And do not forget that John Bruton ruled out working with Democratic Left specifically both before and more importantly after the election. Now he's as happy as a pig in you know what with Democratic Left and they with him.
"If you had been told beforehand that Democratic Left, led by Proinsias De Rossa, would be in government with John Bruton, a major farmer from Meath, you'd have been in danger of arrest again."
He is dismissive of any suggestion that differences between his party and the PDs could make life difficult for them in coalition. "That is the kind of nonsense that goes on in the name of political punditry," he says.
"If Fianna Fail and the PDs agreed on everything, they would be one party. The idea that the imposition or otherwise of water charges will become a sine qua non in any negotiations after the election is ridiculous. It won't and anyone who knows about these things knows that."
In many ways Mr McCreevy sounds more as if he belongs in Mary Harney's party. An admitted "right winger", he is vocal in his criticism of the current government spending.
As Minister for Social Welfare, Mr McCreevy introduced a raft of cuts known as the "dirty dozen". They included ending disability and dental benefit for people unemployed for more than four years, and cutting assistance on ESB and gas bills as well as abolishing maternity benefit for unemployed women.
This and his shake up of Bord Failte during his time as Minister for Trade have copper fastened his reputation as a man of serious fiscal rectitude.
He is scathing about the Government's ability to hold back spending. "If you can find some theory which says that in times of boom you increase spending by over 20 per cent when inflation is less than 6 per cent, I'll bow to it," he says. "Or if there is another theory which says you can increase spending when facing into a monetary union with all the usual restrictions on budget deficits and borrowing, then I'll bow to that as well."
MR McCREEVY is insistent that you have to decide what spending will be and then stick to it.
"If you want to put more money into combating crime for example, you have to cut back elsewhere," he says with the passion perhaps only an accountant could muster.
However, when pressed about which projects he would not have funded if he had been minister, he refuses to commit himself. "There is not a project in the country that you couldn't say is desirable. We'd all like to give more money, have, more resources, but it is the job of government to say that would be very good but we have to have priorities."
He warns that when the economic cycle eventually turns down, it will be "nearly impossible to reduce spending". He says if he is made Minister for Finance, spending would not increase above the limits set out in Partnership 2000, inflation plus 2 per cent.
Of course, these are the limits the Government set itself, so what makes Charlie McCreevy think he would be able to manage it this time around? After all, did the last two Fianna Fail administrations with the PDs and Labour both not exceed their spending targets?
"From 1987 onwards, national agreements were entered into and then deferred. These were cast iron guarantees. The deferral of public sector pay increases had to be brought up at that time.
"This Government exceeded its own spending targets in 1994 and the targets were not too strenuous or onerous in the first place. In fact, people would have said that the 2 per cent above inflation limit should be the upper limit, but the Coalition partners have chosen to ignore them totally and are prime pumping the economy which it does not need."
Mr McCreevy says the lessons of the free spending high borrowing 1970s and 1980s should not be forgotten amid all the buzz about the Celtic Tiger of the 1990s. He argues that spending does not keep down unemployment, and in fact, brought the State to the edge of bankruptcy.
"We discovered a formula then which has worked well. That has been prudent financial management and prudent control: if we had not made a reversal of policy in 1987 under Charles Haughey we would not he enjoying the growth we are enjoying today."
Nevertheless, the economy is going well so why should the voters switch to Fianna Fail? What could the party do to improve things further?
First, the Exchequer borrowing requirement, or the amount the Government would borrow for day to day spending, would be set at zero. "It would be a planned zero and not one that happened by accident."
Spending, of course, would bed kept within the limits set down by Partnership 2000 and there would be tax cuts. The top rate of income tax and PRSI combined would not be more than 50 per cent by the time Fianna Fail left office, Mr McCreevy promises. It currently stands at 55.75 per cent.
However, the rub is that public spending may have to be cut over the next two years, Mr McCreevy admits. "The way this Government has increased spending over the last two years makes me absolutely sure there must be a certain amount of fat. There has to be, they have just let it rip.
However, as to where the cuts may come Mr McCreevy refuses to be drawn. "I have no idea, I am not a member of Government," he says. "No Department will ever tell a minister you can cut off a bit of spending there. It's a badge of honour if you can go to Cabinet and get more money it's another nonsense of the management in the Civil Service. A minister should be complimented for having the foresight to look at the overall picture."
He is also wary of any suggestion that the spending cuts could come from social welfare - one of the fastest growing budgets under the care of Mr De Rossa.
"My party's philosophy is to be protective of the aged, the sick and unemployed. We are the party who has had support at that end of the scale for 70 years.
ASKED about the proposals from the Conference of Religious of Ireland or a basic income for all, Mr McCreevy is dismissive.
"The CORI report has been examined by a few people and I'm not totally convinced it's the way to do things. The costs we have been told are enormous. I know that is disputed, but I would be reluctant to go down that road."
He then adds decisively: "We are not going down that road."
Mr McCreevy also says if he is Minister for Finance, "a job I'd love, of course I would", a close watch would be maintained on consumer prices.
Although there is no sign yet of inflation rising, he is adamant it is something which no one can satisfactorily explain. It could be that competition among retailers explains a large part of our low inflation, but with the Government fuelling the flames it is something on which a close watch will have to be kept.
"We want a touch on the brakes not a foot on the accelerator," he says. However, he doesn't blame Ruairi Quinn entirely. "No matter what the Minister says at the Cabinet table, they will not listen in a year of an election. I understand the politics, but throwing money into a rapidly growing economy and adding fuel to the fire is extraordinary.
According to Mr McCreevy, people who espouse this sort of action always come from the left of Irish life, but it is always the people they want to protect who suffer the most when the economy turns down. "The upper end of the scale suffer a little bit, they might have to cut back on the second holiday, but it's those at the bottom end who will have to worry about having enough to eat."
While Fianna Fail leader Bertie Ahern is completely committed to Ireland joining European Monetary Union, Mr McCreevy is far more cautious. If Britain stays out, he believes Ireland would have "immense problems" whether we go in or stay out.
"Let's be honest about it," he says. "If Britain is staying out there are going to be problems.
Even though we have reduced our dependence on trade with the UK, it still is, and always will be, our major trading partner.
"If Britain stays out, which seems most likely, whoever wins the election on May 1st, the major player on our doorstep will be a great worry to us.
He wants strict rules set down to govern the relationship between the countries which join the single currency and those which choose to remain on the sidelines. "For them, it's like being members of the club but not having to abide by the rules of the club. It's very worrying but it looks as if the British government has refused to be pigeon holed into any particular commitments."
However, to stay out because Britain was staying out would be equally damaging. "That would copper fasten the world's view that we are a satellite of Britain and would seriously affect the way we are perceived internationally."
Going completely against the grain of most European political thinking, Mr McCreevy says it would not be the end of the world if monetary union did not go ahead. "Some people give the impression it would be the end of the economic world, but in my view that would not be the situation."
Nevertheless, he admits there is a "great political imperative" driving it and he believes it will take place.
HE says no one has put a monetary union into place before without an integrated political process. The United States, he says, is a homogenous unit with flexibility of labour, one budget and one political process.
"It will be interesting to see if you can have monetary union without an integrated process," he adds. He also wonders if it is possible to set a date and say that on January 1st, 1999, there will be interlocking exchange rates. It might have been better to announce at 8 p.m. that exchange rates were locked in at mid day, he reflects.
"Politicians, central bankers and civil servants all work in their own areas of experience, but there are boys and girls sitting and looking at screens all day and they actually think about profit and say to themselves, `I'm going to have a spec on this'."
"And I learnt from my experience [during the currency crisis] in 1992 and 1993 that when the currency speculators come looking' for you, you will not be able to stand the heat. Even the big guys cannot stand it if they come looking for them.