Raw nerves in FF as Lawlor prepares his next move

The media made much of Liam Lawlor's return to Leinster House directly from Mountjoy on Wednesday, but if Drapier is any judge…

The media made much of Liam Lawlor's return to Leinster House directly from Mountjoy on Wednesday, but if Drapier is any judge of mood the biggest welcome for Liam Lawlor came from Liam Lawlor himself. Politicians by and large are courteous people and nobody was going to snub Liam Lawlor. The welcome back, however, was far less emphatic than has been portrayed. The fatted calf is still grazing and will continue to do so until old age or BSE calls a halt, at least as far as Liam Lawlor is concerned.

For many in Fianna Fail, Liam Lawlor, never a reassuring figure, is now a source of real nervousness, a no-win certainty for the party. If he goes ahead and tells all he knows to the Flood tribunal, the story is not likely to be a pretty one and heaven knows who will be implicated.

In fact more than heaven knows, and all of us can hazard a few solid guesses as to those who are sleeping uneasily these nights as they ponder Liam Lawlor's next move. The only certainty is that his tentacles spread widely over a long number of years, his hand was in many pies, and should he chose to, he will have many stories to tell. Few are likely to be edifying.

Liam Lawlor better than anybody else knows that failure to co-operate fully with the tribunal is not now an option. Mr Justice Thomas Smyth's sentence was merely a down payment, a signal that the courts mean business. Drapier finds it hard to credit the bonfire story, but like everybody else must wait to see what the tribunal makes of it. If true - and Drapier has huge doubts - then it was an act of folly and stupidity and will have major consequences, but Drapier will suspend judgment for the moment.

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Meanwhile, the ball is back in our court this week as the Dail must decide how to handle the Lawlor affair. The first reality is that we are one of only seven parliamentary democracies in the world which does not have the right to expel a member. Maybe we should have that right, but that is another day's work, and best resolved in a period of calm and reflection rather than in the heat of an immediate controversy.

In a week in which Peter Mandelson resigned over a relatively minor matter, there are some here who would expect Liam Lawlor to do likewise. But, as Rodney Rice noted in his increasingly good radio programme on Wednesday night, "resigning is not our way of doing things". So there is no question of Liam Lawlor making things easy for others, especially his former colleagues.

Drapier said last week the predominant public interest lies in Liam Lawlor getting back into the tribunal and telling his story. For the moment everything else should be subordinate to that aim. But there is another view, too - that Liam Lawlor's failure to co-operate with the tribunal he voted to establish, his obstruction of that tribunal and the strictures visited on him by Mr Justice Smyth cannot be let go unmarked. This is especially so in view of the unprecedented call by the leaders of all parties for him to co-operate fully with the tribunal.

Drapier agrees with that view. There can be no wink and nod. Dail Eireann, in an unprecedented step, has to tell Liam Lawlor his behaviour is unacceptable, that he has brought the House into disrepute and indicate to him what it thinks he should do. Whether this be through the Fianna Fail motion which would run coterminous with the High Court timetable - in other words take action when the timetable for co-operation laid down by Mr Justice Smyth runs out - or go with the Opposition motion calling for immediate resignation, remains to be seen.

In a real sense the question is academic because there is nothing immediate the Dail can do, but the debate itself will be an important one. Drapier is not a particularly judgmental person and is usually suspicious of those who rush to judgment, but this is one occasion on which we will be expected to pass judgment on a colleague who has brought the House into disrepute. The need for clarity and leadership will be especially expected of the man who is leader of the House, Bertie Ahern.

Drapier is not sure what to make of the EU's censure of Charlie McCreevy. In many ways it was heavy-handed, but then whoever expected a lightness of touch from the European Commission. It seemed out of proportion to the transgressions and allowed Mary Harney to don the green jersey on Thursday morning, call up tribal memories of poor little Ireland, alone against the world, now the envy of bigger but less happy countries, and more or less challenge the patriotism of anyone who would dare doubt the Government, its policies and especially "the greatest finance minister in our history".

Drapier was impressed. But only up to a point. The Commission did not just wake up the other morning suffering from a bad hangover or some malady of the foie and decide to take it out on somebody, preferably a small guy who would not pose a threat and do something nasty in retaliation - in other words, poor little Ireland. Sure, aren't we used to being rounded on by big bullies?

Even Charlie McCreevy will find it hard to persuade us that was the case. There had to be reasons for the censure and, on the face of it, there are causes for concern. Last year's inflation ran at three times the euro zone average; we had an expansionary Budget and we intend increasing public spending by 13 per cent. From the European point of view, our fiscal policy is dangerously out of line.

On top of that we have been huge beneficiaries of European funding over the years. Up to now we have taken care to portray ourselves as good Europeans, team players, conscious of the bigger picture.

Of late, however, our tone has changed. Charlie McCreevy, in particular, has taken to lecturing the Europeans, telling them to follow our example and indicating clearly, that he, along with Mary Harney and perhaps Bertie Ahern, are the main architects of the Irish economic miracle.

It is a dangerous line at the best of times, but in a changing environment which has seen a weekly toll of job losses in the high-tech industries, where there are serious doubts about the US economy, where our own costs are spiralling dangerously, such an approach is less than prudent. Politicians talk a lot about the Celtic Tiger, some claim it as their own creation, but few people give us much credit and most have underlying fears and anxieties that we, the politicians might yet "blow it" on them.

We would be better off listening to what the Commission has to say, give a reasoned reply, correct what we have to correct, rather than resorting to knee-jerk chauvinism which does us no credit whatsoever.