The dissident IRA group responsible for the Omagh bombing atrocity was last night expected to announce a complete cessation of its campaign from midnight.
The group, calling itself the `Real IRA' is believed to have decided to end its campaign in the face of co-ordinated security operations against its members in the Republic and Northern Ireland, and reports of threats from Provisional IRA members angered at the effects of the Omagh bombing.
The `Real IRA' ceasefire brings about a situation where only one dissident republican group, known as the Continuity IRA, has not called a ceasefire. However, gardai believe this group is effectively defunct with its few experienced members having joined the `Real IRA' in recent months.
Last Saturday the only other dissident republican group, the Irish National Liberation Army, ended more that 20 years of violent activity with a ceasefire call and an apology to its victims.
Garda sources were yesterday still somewhat sceptical about the imminent `Real IRA' ceasefire call and believe that some members are thought to want a period of inaction before remounting a terrorist campaign. There are said to be signs of divisions among both the `Real IRA' and its associated political wing, the 32-County Sovereignty Movement.
However, a majority, including members from Tyrone and Dublin, is believed to have been genuinely shocked at the casualties and is in favour of a permanent ceasefire and even the dissolution of the organisation.
Some of those who are said to favour a ceasefire have travelled into hiding in the west of Ireland. A number of 32-County Sovereignty Movement figures are known to be in Clare, and it is believed there would be a high degree of nervousness and pro-ceasefire sentiment among some of these figures.
In a statement earlier yesterday the 32-County Sovereignty Movement denied it had any involvement with the `Real IRA'. A spokesman from Dundalk said the movement was "clearly separate and distinct from the `Real IRA' in exactly the same way that Sinn Fein differs from the IRA".
Mr Fra Browne said it was "sad but not surprising" that the first all-Ireland dimension of the Belfast Agreement would be "the introduction of cross-Border repression", a reference to the co-ordinated anti-terrorist legislation to be enacted by both parliaments within the next fortnight.
In a second statement yesterday, the movement called on sections of the media to withdraw accusations against its members, Ms Bernadette Sands and Mr Michael McKevitt. It said: "These articles are being encouraged and instigated by the British government to undermine legal political opposition to British rule and may put lives at risk.
"These unprecedented articles are intended by the British to ease the passage of cross-Border repressive laws that may have an impact for years to come."
During the year of its existence, the `Real IRA' bombed five towns in Northern Ireland: Markethill, Moira, Portadown, Newtownhamilton and Banbridge, before the attack on Omagh which led to the worst casualties of any terrorist attack.
Earlier this year gardai had a series of successes against the group, seizing three tonnes of explosives and arresting 19 people.
Gardai now appear satisfied that most, if not all, released prisoners have abided by the terms of the Provisional IRA ceasefire and have avoided contact with any of their former associates in the Republic who sided with the dissident group.
It is also believed the extent of the casualties in Omagh - with 28 dead and more than 300 injured - will have deterred any further Provisional IRA members from having anything to do with the `Real IRA'.
The identical legislation in Britain and the Republic to allow courts to convict persons of membership of the `Real IRA' on the word of senior Garda and RUC officers will be in place in the next fortnight. It is expected action will be taken against a number of people who are believed to have been responsible for creating and running the `Real IRA'.
The bulk of the organisation is based in the Republic, according to security sources on both sides of the Border. It is believed most members of what was known as the Provisional IRA's southern command who were not in prison joined the `Real IRA' this year. Only Kerry, Donegal and parts of Monaghan are said to have remained loyal to the Adams-McGuinness Sinn Fein leadership.
During the late spring, a small number of formerly important Provisional IRA figures in south Armagh are said to have defected to the `Real IRA' and to have provided the group with a secure bomb-making base which may have been used to manufacture the device which was used in Omagh last Saturday week.