The Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) is to bring forward its report on paramilitarism from May to Easter, making specific reference to the foiled alleged IRA abduction of republican dissident Bobby Tohill three weeks ago, according to Commission sources.
As the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, announced a post-St Patrick's week push to restore the Assembly and Executive, IMC sources said yesterday the report was now likely before Easter rather than early May. On Monday, the IMC said it was considering such an early report.
The IMC, chaired by former Alliance leader Lord Alderdice, is due to announce next week that this report would deal with the extent of republican and loyalist activity in general, but, in recognition of the political concerns surrounding the Tohill incident, will specifically rule whether or not the IRA was responsible.
The IMC can recommend sanctions against Sinn Féin should it find the IRA was responsible for the attack in a Belfast city centre pub over three weeks ago.
Towards the end of this month, the British government is also due to finally release retired Canadian Judge Peter Cory's report on the four separate killings of solicitors Pat Finucane and Rosemary Nelson, Loyalist Volunteer Force leader Billy Wright, and Portadown Catholic Robert Hamill.
The judge has recommended independent inquiries in all four cases, and the British government has already stated it would carry out his wishes. The nature and form of these inquiries, however, will determine whether the families of the victims, the Irish Government, and parties in the North will accept how the British government responds to Cory.
What seems certain is that the IMC findings on Tohill, together with the Cory report, will cause controversy and political upheaval. It is expected that, shortly after St Patrick's week when most senior Irish politicians are in the US, Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will personally direct attempts to find a formula that will see an end to paramilitary activity and a linked unionist commitment to share power with nationalist parties.
Both Mr Ahern and Mr Blair appear agreed that if the IMC finds against the IRA, there would be little point in forcing Sinn Féin out of talks aimed at restoring devolution, although there will be unionist pressure for some form of sanctions.
"What would be the point in excluding Sinn Féin, when, shortly afterwards, if we are to have any hope of finding a breakthrough, we would just have to find some way of un-excluding them," said one senior insider.
The main focus of this Ahern-Blair attempt is likely to be on persuading the IRA to fully sign up to paragraph 13 of the Hillsborough joint declaration. This requires all paramilitaries to end activity such as "punishment" attacks, exiling, targeting, racketeering, smuggling and other criminality.
