Gaeltacht areas with declining use of the Irish language should be given seven years to reverse that trend or lose their "Gaeltacht" status altogether, according to a report published last night.
The Gaeltacht Commission report also says the Official Language Equality Act should be enacted immediately, and the status of Irish as an official EU working language should be secured.
And it says that census information is not sufficient to determine Gaeltacht boundaries.
The study, which was released by the Minister of State for Arts, Heritage, the Gaeltacht and the Islands, Ms Mary Coughlan, in Gaobh Dobhair, Co Donegal, says current State policies are failing to protect the language. A new "language reinforcement strategy" is required for every Gaeltacht community, it says.
The report gives details on the extent to which the language is under threat. It says that of 154 district electoral divisions (DEDs) in the Gaeltacht, only 18 of these have a 75 per cent population which speaks Irish daily. Some 12 of these are in Co Galway, four are in Co Donegal and two are in Co Kerry.
If the criteria for redrawing Gaeltacht boundaries are that 80 per cent of the community must be Irish-speaking, as was the case in 1926, then only 14 DEDs would be eligible for Gaeltacht status.
The report analyses the findings of both the 1991 and 1996 censuses, and notes the change in questions posed in the 1996 census may be the reason for the increase in percentage of Irish speakers identified in the Gaeltacht at that time. "As no safe basis of comparison is available at present, the data produced by the next two censuses will be of particular importance," it states.
It is on this basis that it recommends granting a seven-year period to all Gaeltacht areas to allow for increased usage of Irish.
Areas which manage to increase the percentage of Irish speakers to over 40 per cent will be given another seven-year period of grace.
An analysis of the Commission's report by Mr Donnacha Ó hEallaithe, a mathematics lecturer at the Galway-Mayo Institute of Technology, has already been carried out for Foinse, the Irish-language weekly, and Raidio na Gaeltachta. It says large areas of Co Galway could lose their Gaeltacht status if the commission's proposal is accepted by Government.
Using the 1996 census figures - which the Gaeltacht Commission is implicitly critical of - Mr Ó hEallaithe says that the Gaeltacht boundaries would shrink deep into Connemara, leaving 11,150 daily Irish language speakers in the redefined official Gaeltacht.
Among the areas which he identifies as being at risk are: Moycullen, Barna, Claregalway, Carnmore, Carrowbrowne, Annaghdown, and Castlegar, Co Galway.
He also notes the Furbo DED, where both Údarás na Gaeltachta, and Roinn na Gaeltachta (the sub-section of the Department of Arts, Culture, Heritage and Gaeltacht which set up the Gaeltacht Commission) are based, is "borderline" at 43.6 per cent of daily speakers.
Mr Ó hEallaithe predicts the Mayo Gaeltacht areas would be "decimated" and would consist of as little as 1,921 native Irish speakers.
Only four of the current Gaeltacht areas in the DEDs of Ceathrú Thaidhg, Eachlim (Blacksod) in North West Mayo and Fionnaithe and Ballinacalla in the south-west would survive having their borders redrawn, he says.
The full text of the Gaeltacht Commission report is available at http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/special/
Gaeltacht Commission report's recommendations:
• Seven years' grace for all Gaeltacht areas, before boundaries are redefined
• Gaeltacht areas after this period to include only those regions where more than 50 per cent of the population speaks Irish daily
• Areas reaching over 40 per cent daily usage, but falling short of 50 per cent, to be given a further seven-year extension
• Immediate enactment of Official Language Equality Act
• Provision of comprehensive education and training system from pre-school which gives priority to Irish as first language
• Status of Irish as an official EU working language should be secured