Middle EastDuring the US presidential election campaign most Arabs, Iranians and Turks adopted a self-contradictory line. They said "Anybody but Bush", then argued "Bush and Kerry are the same." They wanted President Bush defeated for refusing to engage - as they saw it - in the Middle East peace process, press Israel to negotiate with the Palestinians and halt the Israeli re-occupation of the Palestinian territories.
They also hoped to see Mr Bush punished for invading and occupying Iraq. But many regional pundits and politicians also claim that Israel is so influential on the US political scene that a change in the White House makes very little difference in policy. However, the Democrat challenger, Mr John Kerry, pledged to re-engage in peacemaking, bring in Europe, and to work towards a Palestinian state - policies Mr Bush eschewed.
There is widespread expectation that the level of violence in the region will rise sharply during a second Bush administration. It is said Mr Bush could see his victory as an endorsement of his policies on Israel and Iraq. The fact that he secured an outright majority of the popular vote and his Republican party maintained control of Congress could encourage him to put the full weight of the US behind the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon's plan to pull out of Gaza while expanding and expanding Israeli settlement in the West Bank, annexing large tracts of territory and making it impossible for a Palestinian state to emerge.
Iraqis express concern that Mr Bush, bolstered by a strengthened mandate, could prosecute a full-scale war against the rebel Iraqi cities of Falluja, Ramadi, Samarra, and Baqouba, razing them to the ground and killing scores of civilians. Iraqis argue that this might not eliminate the resistance and could backfire by alienating the majority of Sunni Iraqis who could boycott the proposed January poll, denying the provisional parliament representivity. Iraqi Shias could retaliate if they are prevented from freely electing deputies. The Bush administration does not want clerics and Islamists to dominate the provisional parliament, tasked with drafting a new constitution and overseeing the work of the government until a sovereign national assembly is elected, perhaps at the end of 2005.
Now that he has been re-elected Mr Bush is likely to retain his team of neo-conservative officials and advisers and continue to adhere to their agenda of tackling adversaries like Syria and Iran, promote democracy in authoritarian Middle Eastern states, and press them to open relations with Israel in spite of the fact that the Palestinian problem has not been resolved, the Arab quid pro quo for normalisation. Largely secular Arab political élites argue that such policies could contribute to the rise of Islamist militants across the entire region.
The leaders of Iran, Syria, and Lebanon believe a second Bush administration could take action against them if they do not capitulate to Washington's demands. Tehran has been told to halt its programme to enrich uranium, Damascus to end its support for Palestinian resistance groups and withdraw its troops from Lebanon, and Beirut to oust the Syrian army and cut close political ties to Damascus.
A second Bush administration could give Israel a "green light" to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities and press for the imposition of economic sanctions on Syria and Lebanon, wrecking their fragile economies.
Saudi Arabia could also come under pressure from the US to step up the liberalisation of its political system and ease social restrictions. This would pit the monarchy against its traditional ally and mainstay, the deeply conservative Wahhabi religious establishment which, through its control of the mosques, the judiciary and education, is the most serious obstacle to the modernisation of the country.
Such is the antipathy towards the first Bush administration that the re-election of Mr Bush - who is viewed as a fundamentalist Christian prosecuting a crusade against Arabs and Muslims - could feed Islamist radicalism and deepen the gulf between Orient and Occident.