Two camps divided over Syria sit together uneasily in government, writes Lara Marlowe in Beirut
Nader Hariri believes the catastrophe that has struck Lebanon since July 12th is the fulfilment of a threat by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. "I am sure Syria has facilitated [ the war with Israel]," Mr Hariri says. "There is definitely a Syrian hand in it."
In summer 2004, Mr Assad told Mr Hariri's uncle, the then prime minister Rafik Hariri, that he would "break Lebanon on [ Hariri's] head" if he, the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and their ally Marwan Hamadé did not accept the reappointment of Émile Lahoud as president of Lebanon.
That autumn, Mr Hamadé barely survived an assassination attempt. Mr Hariri was murdered in a Valentine's day bombing in 2005, along with 21 other people. His assassination split Lebanon into two camps: "the March 14th alliance" named after the day on which more than one million Lebanese marched in downtown Beirut to demand the departure of Syrian troops; and the pro-Syrian camp, led by Hizbullah and Mr Lahoud.
Those two camps now sit together uneasily in government. Though they differ on the question of Lebanon's identity, the need to disarm Hizbullah and the role of an as-yet vague foreign intervention force, they achieved a modicum of unity this week, signing off unanimously on prime minister Fouad Siniora's seven-point plan to end the war.
Mr Siniora, a former banker who was employed by the late Rafik Hariri, proposed the following plan to end the war: an immediate ceasefire; an exchange of Israeli and Lebanese prisoners; the deployment of an international force along the Israeli border; the return of the "Shebaa Farms" - 45 sq km of land on the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since 1967; reconstruction; the return of 800,000 refugees to their homes; and the deployment of the Lebanese army to the border.
Though the plan does not specifically say that Hizbullah will disarm, Mr Siniora's camp believes that is implicit in the prisoner exchange and the return of the Shebaa Farms, which would deprive Hizbullah of reasons for attacking Israel. The plan was the subject of a stormy, four-hour cabinet debate on Thursday, in which Mr Hamadé led the charge against Hizbullah. After 14 surgical operations, he has recovered from the car bomb that nearly killed him - and in which some suspect Hizbullah involvement - and is minister of telecommunications.
"I am not the most anti-Hizbullah minister; I am the most anti-Syrian minister," Mr Hamadé corrects me, adding that he still expects the Syrians to "try to liquidate [ him]". Mr Hamadé says the government he participates in will try to prise Hizbullah from the grasp of Syria and Iran.
At Thursday's cabinet meeting, Mr Hamadé recounts, Hizbullah's two ministers asked Mr Siniora: "How dare you talk about the new mandate for the UN force in Lebanon without consulting us?" To which Mr Hamadé replied: "Did you consult us before dragging this country into war?"
Mr Hamadé is furious that Hizbullah fires Katyusha missiles at Israel. "We are the ones who are supposed to decide about war and peace," he says.
Dr Ali Mokdad, a neurologist and one of 15 Hizbullah members of parliament, gives a childish explanation of Hizbullah's decision to launch a war without notifying the rest of the government: "In every speech for the past two years, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah (the leader of Hizbullah) has said we would capture Israeli soldiers at the first opportunity, to get our prisoners back . . . Military acts by Hizbullah are top, top secret. Only two or three people knew about this; I myself learned of it watching television."
But now Hizbullah wants a ceasefire, and has mandated the Lebanese government to negotiate on its behalf. Prime minister Siniora threatened to abandon the mission when Hizbullah initially objected to his call for an international force in southern Lebanon.
"We want a robust, armed intervention force that can play a deterrent role, mandated by the UN and acceptable in the Lebanese environment," explains Mr Hamadé, suggesting France, Egypt and Turkey - the powers in Lebanon in the 19th century - might send peacekeepers.
This international force would not disarm Hizbullah, Mr Hamadé insists. Under any agreement, "Hizbullah would have three choices: turn in their arms to the Lebanese army, join the Lebanese army with their weapons, or send their weapons abroad as other militias did in 1992." A Christian army officer reports his unit is on the verge of killing each other, with the Shias lining up against Sunnis, Christians and Druze. "They are calling us Jews and Zionists."
But despite such alarming incidents, both pro- and anti-Syrian officials insisted in interviews that the Lebanese civil war will not resume.
Dr Mokdad, the Hizbullah member of parliament, says his group will disarm only if three conditions are filled: "When the Shebaa Farms are under Lebanese sovereignty; when our prisoners in Lebanon are freed; and when there is no Israeli intervention whatsoever in Lebanon, neither political nor military." However, Syrian and Iranian "moral support" are necessary in Lebanon, says Dr Mokdad, "because the US and Israel want a new Middle East where every country which rejects their policies will be chopped into pieces."
Hizbullah say they would accept a more numerous, more powerful UN force over a broader area. "But definitely not a Nato force," adds Dr Mokdad. If a UN force tried to disarm Hizbullah, the group would "of course" fight them, he adds.
Lebanese leaders are wrestling with the same issues no doubt discussed yesterday by prime minister Tony Blair and president George Bush. Dr Mokdad predicts the war will continue for "a few more weeks", during which the civilians of southern Lebanon continue to pay with their homes and lives.
To the dismay of the International Committee of the Red Cross, both Israelis and Hizbullah refuse to recognise the sanctity of civilian life. One Israeli official claimed - preposterously - on the BBC that a Katyusha is stored in every living room in southern Lebanon.
"Hizbullah is one-and-a-half million people," Dr Mokdad says. "Not only armed people, but the population, refuse to disarm Hizbullah because they believe that if Hizbullah are disarmed, the Israelis will attack and kill their sisters, mothers and children."