PARIS LETTER:Pensions reform, unions, crime, resignations, migration and cabinet reshuffles all welcome the president back from his summer holidays
NICOLAS SARKOZY must already feel his three-week holiday on the Riviera is a distant memory. No sooner had he got his feet under the desk at the Élysée Palace than the French president was contemplating what may prove to be the most testing four months of his term. And with eyes already turning to the presidential election in 2012, the autumn may go some way towards answering a question that still puzzles many: what does Sarkozysme actually mean?
Much hinges on Sarkozy’s proposals to overhaul the pensions regime, which has become the government’s flagship reform and a battleground that has galvanised his opponents. Although estimates of the turnout at Tuesday’s nationwide protests range from 1.1 million to 2.7 million, the show of strength – bigger than any in 15 years – surprised even the trade union leadership, not least because, despite clear opposition to raising the retirement age from 60 to 62, the polls also show a majority is resigned to the change.
Sarkozy has played a strategically shrewd game on pensions. He stuck to a tight schedule, fought for control of the daily media cycle, flattered union leaders and held back concessions worth €1 billion on marginal aspects of the plan until after this week’s marches. But with more protests planned and the Socialist Party revived under its leader, Martine Aubry, the pressure will grow from the streets as well as from abroad, with Brussels and the ratings agencies keen to see that Paris can follow through on its pledges.
For a president who built his election campaign around his reforming zeal, a retreat would not only jeopardise France’s cherished AAA sovereign debt rating but also leave Sarkozy badly weakened.
André Zylberberg, an economist who co-wrote a critical appraisal of Sarkozy’s reforms last year, argues that, on most reforms since 2007, Sarkozy has been outmanoeuvred by the unions, stripping crucial elements from each one while retaining aspects that can be packaged as successes. Sarkozy, a lawyer by training, is an instinctive dealmaker.
"It's very difficult to make things move in France," Zylberberg tells The Irish Times. "On every important project, the big lobby groups with something to lose from these reforms were very well-organised and knew perfectly well how to go about not conceding." One of Sarkozy's problems is that opposition to the pensions plan has become an outlet for wider discontent, at a time when many French people are fearful about unemployment and declining purchasing power. A large number of placards at Tuesday's march referred not to retirement but to recent scandals and the government's hardline rhetoric on immigration and crime.
Then there’s the continuing Bettencourt saga and the recent resignations of two ministers (one for spending €12,000 of taxpayers’ money on Cuban cigars), which couldn’t have come at a worse time for a president whose popularity ratings hover above 30 per cent.
Even if Sarkozy prevails on pensions, moreover, preparations must immediately begin for an austerity budget that the government has pledged will trim the deficit from 8 per cent of gross domestic product to 6 per cent. So far, the public spending cuts that will entail have aroused remarkably little public attention.
Yet, for all his troubles, Sarkozy will know that the daunting autumn ahead could conceivably work in his favour. By prevailing on pensions, his standing would be greatly enhanced in important constituencies.
On crime and immigration, the shift this summer was above all one of rhetoric and marketing – the figures on Roma repatriations have not risen dramatically this year, and proposed new crime laws are less far-reaching than originally thought. The strategist in Sarkozy knew that this would play well with the public – polls suggest a majority approved – while putting the Socialist Party in a tricky position.
The cabinet reshuffle presents another opportunity, allowing Sarkozy to freshen his team and impose his authority after recent signs of dissent. His choices will also tell us quite a lot about the messages he wants his government to project as the countdown to the 2012 election begins.
Will he, for example, demote Bernard Kouchner – the most prominent of several figures with roots on the left brought into government as part of Sarkozy's policy of ouverture, or opening up, to political opponents?
What of rumours that there could be a return to cabinet for the right-wing former prime minister Alain Juppé? And should Prime Minister François Fillon go, what might the choice of replacement reveal? Will Sarkozy, mindful of the rise of Martine Aubry, choose a woman such as justice minister Michèle Alliot-Marie for the post? Might he plump for youth (the bright agriculture minister Bruno Le Maire) or popularity (the praised finance minister Christine Lagarde)? Could he make a conciliatory gesture by appointing a centrist?
Or, if the unions prevail, might Sarkozy be so damaged by then that it doesn’t matter anyway?
