The SDLP and Sinn Féin have rejected a demand by Ulster Unionist MP Mr Jeffrey Donaldson that unionists should have some form of veto over any change to the constitutional status of Northern Ireland.
Ahead of new census figures on Thursday that are expected to show a significant rise in the Catholic population, Mr Donaldson yesterday expressed opposition to the principle of consent as framed in the Belfast Agreement.
The agreement allows for the creation of a united Ireland should a simple majority - 50 per cent plus one - vote for such change. Mr Donaldson argued, however, that another principle underpinning the Belfast Agreement, that of parallel unionist/nationalist consent, which currently benefits the nationalist political minority, should also apply were unionists to become a minority.
This is in line with recent comments to The Irish Times by the DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, who said any change to Northern Ireland's constitutional position within the United Kingdom can only come about by a "weighted" majority. Mr Donaldson said he did not have a particular weighted voting model in mind that would allow for constitutional change. "But I am stating the obvious, that a majority of a few hundred voting for a united Ireland is a recipe for political instability. For anybody to believe that in such circumstances you could coerce unionists into a united Ireland without political instability is living in cloud-cuckoo-land," he said.
While Thursday's census is expected to show the nationalist population in the mid-40 per cent range, Mr Donaldson said he did not believe there were any prospects of a majority in the North voting for a united Ireland "for the foreseeable future".
The former SDLP finance minister, Dr Sean Farren, warned against "a frenzy of comment likely to create expectations of an imminent nationalist majority accompanied by increased apprehension and scaremongering within the unionist community".
But he added that were a simple majority to vote for a united Ireland, then a united Ireland would be created. "However were that to happen, the safeguards contained in the Good Friday agreement that apply to nationalists in the current constitutional arrangement would also apply to unionists, were that constitutional arrangement to change," said Dr Farren.
The former Sinn Féin health minister, Ms Bairbre de Brún, said Mr Donaldson's comments were farcical. "It is totally absurd for Jeffrey Donaldson to suggest that change can be blocked even in the event that a majority of people vote for a united Ireland," she said.
"Let us be clear about one thing. If a majority of people in the six counties vote against the Union, there will be a united Ireland. The Ulster Unionist Party have constantly run away from change and have attempted to block democratic politics at every turn," added Ms de Brún. Dr Esmond Birnie, a UUP MLA, said that in a 1973 vote, 58 per cent of the population voted to keep the Border. "All the available opinion survey evidence suggests there would be a similar figure in 2002," he said.
