SDLP hopes to even score against SF

Sinn Fein vice-president Mr Pat Doherty yesterday described his party's contest with the SDLP for the majority share of the nationalist…

Sinn Fein vice-president Mr Pat Doherty yesterday described his party's contest with the SDLP for the majority share of the nationalist vote as a marathon.

"In five years' time we'll be over the finishing line," he predicted.

SDLP press officer Mr Barry Turley - recalling an Irish Times headline of some years back that rankled - said that after this election it would be evident that the SDLP was not "out of puff".

The SDLP has put a big effort into winning West Tyrone for Ms Brid Rodgers. "We're camped down there," said Mr Turley.

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"It must be a very small camp," Mr Doherty responded.

There is no mistaking the sharp intensity of the rivalry between the SDLP and Sinn Fein. As for pacts, you've got to be joking.

There was some initial talk of a deal in the months before the election but it never appeared to be serious. A pact would guarantee nationalists one extra seat, West Tyrone, and possibly two, Fermanagh-South Tyrone, which would bring the green total at Westminster to seven, against 11 unionist seats.

Even without the pact West Tyrone is there for the taking. What happens in Mr Ken Maginnis's old seat of Fermanagh-South Tyrone depends on whether Ulster Unionist Mr James Cooper gets a relatively free run from the DUP.

With a proper four-way fight, Ms Michelle Gildernew for Sinn Fein or Mr Tommy Gallagher for the SDLP could take the seat. Independent unionist Mr Jim Dixon remaining in the race probably would help Mr Cooper.

The SDLP's Mr Alasdair McDonnell had a real opportunity of winning South Belfast from the UUP's Rev Martin Smyth, but that has been undermined by the decision of Ms Monica McWilliams, of the Women's Coalition, to contest the seat. Privately, SDLP people speak very unkindly about Ms McWilliams these days.

Sinn Fein is seeking to maintain its relentless electoral march to a point where it overtakes the SDLP and the UUP, and is the biggest party in Northern Ireland.

That may not happen in this election, as Mr Doherty admits, and if Mr John Hume and Mr Seamus Mallon have their way it won't happen in the five-year target set by Mr Gerry Adams.

But republicans are long-haul merchants. They believe there are now many more nationalists on the electoral register and that the majority of them will vote Sinn Fein. (It will be next year before we know the census 2001 figures.)

In the Assembly election of 1982 Sinn Fein won 64,000 votes, or 10 per cent of the poll. In the Assembly election three years ago it won 143,000 votes, or 17.6 per cent of the vote. In the same period the SDLP saw its vote rise from 119,000 (19 per cent) to 178,000 votes (22 per cent) - an impressive increase but on percentage not as remarkable as Sinn Fein.

Sinn Fein's electoral machine is highly effective. The party has 74 council seats against 120 for the SDLP. It will try to encroach further into the SDLP's local government power base. Equally, however, the SDLP has been beefing up its own electoral and administrative capability.

Party chairman Mr Alex Attwood, who is contesting West Belfast, has helped inject new vibrancy into the party. Even an idea like Mr Tommy Gallagher's in Fermanagh-South Tyrone, offering U2 tickets for Slane on his website, shows a new element of creative thinking.

Its boldest move was to drop Ms Brid Rodgers into West Tyrone, where the contest is between her, Mr Doherty and sitting Ulster Unionist MP Mr William Thompson. In the Assembly election Sinn Fein was eight percentage points ahead of the SDLP, and also ahead of Mr Thompson, so before Ms Rodgers was parachuted in Mr Doherty was the firm favourite.

Everything has changed now. Over a number of years, local SDLP man Denis Haughey gradually built up his base in neighbouring Mid-Ulster to a point where he could seriously challenge the DUP's Rev William McCrea. Then, when this opportunity presented itself in 1997, Sinn Fein's high-profile Mr Martin McGuinness was shifted from Foyle into Mid-Ulster. He was quickly seen as the only viable nationalist alternative to Mr McCrea and accordingly took the seat.

Now, Ms Rodgers is trying to do to Mr Doherty what Sinn Fein did to Mr Haughey in Mid-Ulster: persuade nationalists that she is the only alternative to the sitting anti-agreement unionist MP.

It would be folly to write off Mr Doherty, or Mr Thompson, who could take the seat on a 50/50 split nationalist vote, but the Minister of Agriculture, whose appeal goes beyond nationalism, just might exact revenge for Mid-Ulster.

For nationalism this election primarily is about counting the votes and measuring the distance between the SDLP and Sinn Fein. But West Tyrone is the big prize.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times