IT MIGHT be better for unionism if the Westminster elections weren't taking place at this time. Until recently, David Trimble held the balance of power in a hung parliament. One observer re marked that a Labour landslide would reduce him from a major player to a back number".
That's too extreme: even if Trimble is no longer a kingmaker on May 2nd, he will still be the leader of the largest party in Northern Ireland and the main political leader of the majority community. Arranging a settlement without his participation will remain very difficult if not outright impossible.
There is also the possibility, with the Tories apparently catching up on Labour, that the arithmetic after May 2nd might still be such that Trimble could exploit it.
But there is another sense in which Trimble's party, at least, could do without this election. The key contest is in the Mid Ulster constituency and the UUP has stood aside in favour of the sitting MP, the Rev William McCrea of the DUP.
If the Mr McCrea lost his seat, it would weaken the DUP vis a vis Trimble's party. It would be one up for the UUP in a tense and bitter rivalry.
But if the Mid Ulster seat was taken by Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness this would be a most unwelcome development for unionism generally, with potentially far reaching implications. Although McGuinness is nobody's idea of a glad handing politician, observers say he has a very efficient electoral machine backing him. As the de facto deputy leader of Sinn Fein he gets constant media exposure and in the words of one old media hand: "Five minutes on television is worth four hours canvassing in the Catholic housing estates in Cookstown.
The other main candidate in Mid Ulster is Mr Denis Haughey of the SDLP and it would be wrong to rule him out of contention. Although most observers are predicting McGuinness will take the seat, SDLP sources said they were fighting to win and were hopeful of victory.
For the UUP the prospect of Willie McCrea being defeated by someone they regard as a Sinn Fein bogyman must be a bit like watching an old enemy driving over a cliff in your new Mercedes.
So whatever the internal rivalries and disparities within unionism and despite the fact that Mr McCrea shared a platform with the loyalist Billy Wright. it is understood that even the milder elements in the UUP and the unionist community generally are backing the DUP man to keep McGuinness out. Willie will fight to the last vote in the last box.
More generally, it can be argued that this is a watershed election on the nationalist side. Despite the internecine rivalry among unionists the contest between them may not settle very much.
The consensus view among Northern election watchers is that the UUP will hold its present nine seats and may even gain a new member of parliament. The quiet spoken Willie Thompson has been given a clear run by the DUP in West Tyrone. Here his main rivals are Pat Doherty, vicepresident of Sinn Fein, and the SDLP candidate, Joe Byrne.
Ironically it is the very strength of the two nationalist candidates that is giving Thompson his chance. Doherty has an amiable manner with a good "feel" for how rural nationalists and republicans see the world. His supporters are making light of the fact that he is a "blow in" with jokes about his dilemma when Donegal and Tyrone next face each other on the football field.
Byrne is a local man who put his campaign into top gear at a very early stage. The SDLP candidate hit the ground running with energy and determination. Observers believe Doherty and Byrne are neck and neck and that Thompson just might slip in between them.
Seats matter more than percentages in thiselection. Should Trimble return with nine or 10 seats, nobody will worry too much if his percentage of the vote goes down.
The DUP has little or nothing in common with Fianna Fail except this: it enjoys elections. The Rev Ian Paisley clearly revels in the camaraderie of the hustings. Opponents have pointed out that the Big Man is now 71 years old but his supporters respond that the DUP leader is as fresh and feisty as ever and claim he will have no problem seeing off the hungry young UUP candidate James Leslie.
The DUP deputy leader, Peter Robinson, is facing a determined challenge from the UUP's Reg Empey in East Belfast. The DUP dismiss Empey's prospects but in dependent observers are not so sure. The consensus is that Empey will get a good vote but that Robinson will probably hold the seat.
The DUP has stood aside also in North Down for Robert McCartney leader of the smaller United Kingdom Unionist Party. There is no love lost between McCartney and the UUP which has put up Alan McFarland against him. McFarland is a former army officer who was mentioned in despatches for his role in anti terrorist operations in Northern Ireland. He is quiet spoken by contrast with the flamboyant and articulate McCartney. UUP voters seem to like their candidates low key but some observers argue that the experienced and combative Empey would have been a better match for the incumbent in North Down.
In the Strangford constituency, Iris Robinson, wife of Peter and Mayor of Castlereagh, is mounting a determined challenge against the UUP deputy leader, John Taylor. Mrs Robinson seeks to become the North's first woman MP since Bernadette McAliskey, or Devlin as she was then. She will give the incumbent a run for his money but the wily and experienced Taylor is expected to keep his seat.
There is a view that the unionist factions and parties are playing musical chairs on the deck of the Titanic. According to this perspective, the enemies of Ulster in the Foreign Office. Iveagh House and IRA headquarters are plotting to undermine the Union. According to this perspective, whether the UUP/DUP/UKUP holds a particular seat is not the main issue. The real challenge is to create unionist unity in defence of the constitutional position.
In this worldview, the Drumcree issue is more important than any election just now. Even staid and stolid members of the unionist community whose loyalty is as much to the half crown as the crown are deeply worried.
On the one hand, if Orangemen cannot "walk the Queen's high way" it is a deeply disturbing development. As one source said, "If we're kept off the Garvaghy Road, soon we won't even be able to march in Cultra." At the same time, the dangers of another Drumcree cataclysm are apparent to sensible people on all sides. To adapt a phrase from the Vietnam War, no body wants to "destroy Northern Ireland in order to save it".
Strangely, given their fearsome background, the most amenable and pragmatic unionists, as far as dealing with nationalists is concerned are the small loyalist parties, the PUP and the UDP. The prominent PUP spokesman. David Ervine, is standing in South Belfast where he should secure a respectable tally which will stand the party in good stead in the local elections which take place on May 21st. The UDP is not standing in the Westminster poll.
But pragmatic loyalists are a small minority within unionism. The big battalions still marshal behind Trimble and Paisley. At present, it looks as if the Orange army will be in battle array once more at Drumcree this July. How to defuse the situation without either side losing face is the circle that must be squared. Some unionists may take the view that a new Labour government should be taught a lesson, just as Merlyn Rees and Harold Wilson were put in their place by the loyalist workers' strike of 1974. There is another view that it's not worth the risk of civil war. By contrast with these dilemmas, next week's election seems like light relief.