Despite his surprising setback in parliamentary elections on Sunday, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic is likely to still press for a referendum on independence for this summer, party officials say.
With 98 per cent of votes counted yesterday, secessionists led by Mr Djukanovic had 42 per cent of the vote, compared to just under 41 per cent for the anti-independence forces. The Liberal Party, the other major pro-independence party, got about 9 per cent.
That was a far smaller margin of victory for pro-independence forces than polls had predicted, and calls into question the potential success of a referendum to separate from Serbia, the only other republic remaining in Yugoslavia.
However, Mr Djukanovic declared victory and his party said it would go ahead with independence.
"We have won," Mr Djukanovic declared early yesterday as he addressed his cheering supporters in the Montenegrin capital, Podgorica. "We made a huge step towards independent Montenegro."
A spokesman, Mr Miodrag Vukovic, said Mr Djukanovic would form a new governing coalition with the Liberals, and together they would push for a referendum on independence this summer.
However, observers in Podgorica cautioned that this is not binding and the decision is up to a vote of top party officials. Still, the Liberals, who strongly criticise Mr Djukanovic for alleged corruption, were gloating.
"After these results, a governing coalition is inevitable. There is no government without us," said Mr Miroslav Vickovic, president of the Liberal Party. "Our condition for entering the government is quite clear: it's the referendum for independence."
Mr Djukanovic still has the option of forming a minority government, which may be attractive if he decides that his support is too small to call a referendum.
Some observers in Podgorica think that Mr Djukanovic is waiting for a signal from the West to determine whether to go ahead with independence.
The international community has cautioned against moves towards independence because of the fear that it may ignite other separatist fires in Kosovo or Bosnia. Sunday's ambiguous result is unlikely to change any minds in the West.
"The space for manipulation for Mr Djukanovic is very, very small. If he selects the Liberals, it will be a very, very strong sign a referendum will be organised this summer," said Mr Nebojsa Medojevic, a Podgorica political analyst.
"The worst scenario for them is to call a referendum and then lose, or have the international community not accept the results," said one Belgradebased diplomat.
Still, time may be running out. Since Slobodan Milosevic was ousted in October, the issue of independence has lost much of its urgency.
The results were cheered in Belgrade, where the new reformist government opposes the further splintering of Yugoslavia. "I think it (the election result) is good, that this is a kind of sobering up," the Yugoslav Interior Minister, Mr Zoran Zivkovic, told Belgrade radio station B-92.
The ruling coalition in Belgrade has emphasised repeatedly, however, that it will respect the democratic process and will not force Montenegro to stay.
The clearest result from Sunday is that Mr Djukanovic has lost the tight grip he has held on Montenegro.
"The big benefit of this election is that no one will take a majority in parliament; it's the first time that the Communist party of Mr Djukanovic lost the majority in parliament," said Mr Medojevic, who heads the anti-corruption Group for Transparency in Montenegro.