Assessment: The Sinn Féin challenge may not be as potent as it was last summer but the party retains a sheen of success, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Reporter
For Gerry Adams and Sinn Féin the general election should, perhaps, have taken place last summer. Then, the party rode high in the opinion polls while the bigger parties slumbered in the face of the impending challenge.
Today, the likely gains appear more modest, but, nevertheless, more than worth while.
Stung into action, Fianna Fáil began months ago to fight back in North Kerry - where Cllr Martin Ferris had thrived, helped by vicious local divisions within Fianna Fáil.
Now, Ferris, recently arrested by gardaí and questioned about vigilante attacks, faces a real battle to defeat FF's Senator Dan Kiely, who is being helped by much Government largesse. Still, Sinn Féin stands at a crossroads. Even if the election goes badly, it should have two TDs, Mr Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin in Cavan Monaghan and Cllr Seán Crowe in Dublin South West.
In the places where it cannot hope to win, it is determined to lay the foundations for the future - first by hitting the vote enjoyed in the past by Fianna Fáil and Labour. A number of factors have combined to make it more palatable in the Republic - most notably Adams's leadership, which has, even in the eyes of his many detractors, been assured.
During the Nice Treaty referendum Adams was allowed to play the role of "statesman" while politicians from the main parties bickered over the referendum's impact.
During a TV debate, the Labour leader, Mr Quinn blundered by denying due credit to Mr Adams on the peace process , and, equally, to make life difficult for him on vigilantism and punishment beatings.
Since the last general election, the Belfast Agreement's passage, the IRA ceasefire, and the party's role in defeating the Nice Treaty have all contributed to putting a sheen of success on the party. In addition, republicanism is not quite the dirty word it was. In several constituencies Sinn Féin enjoyed a boost in membership in the wake of the 1798 Rebellion celebrations.
A victory in North Kerry, though less likely now, can be far from ruled out, particularly if younger voters there accept the party's charges that its candidate is being singled out.
Three TDs will put the party into post-election arithmetic. Two questions will then arise. Should Sinn Féin go into government and face all the dangers that go with that? And will anybody want to do business with them? So far all others publicly shudder at the prospect. Despite Sinn Féin's denials, they point out that it is still organically tied to the IRA. And the IRA has not gone way, to use Mr Adams's over-quoted remarks.
In today's interview, Mr Adams is scathing about Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael's declared revulsion. They would, if the numbers were right, be prepared to do business with Sinn Féin, he insists. A place in government may not be what Sinn Féin really needs or can get. Between now and May, though, Mr Adams must talk up the possibility to woo persuadable voters.