Donegal North East:For decades, the absence of a Blaney representing Donegal North East in the Dáil would have been considered unthinkable.
But it is now emerging as a possibility in the intense battle which is raging in the once predictable sprawling constituency. The legendary Blaney dynasty will come under pressure from Sinn Féin and Fine Gael, and there is also the possibility that Fianna Fáil could be reduced to one seat if the party's fortunes wane.
Everybody agrees that the current line-up of three Fianna Fáil TDs, Dr Jim McDaid, Cecilia Keaveney and Niall Blaney cannot last. Blaney joined Fianna Fáil last summer and his local Independent Fianna Fáil organisation merged with the party in Donegal North East.
The merger might have been considered a coup by Fianna Fáil headquarters, but it went down badly with party activists in Letterkenny who were concerned that there would be no town-based candidate on the general election ticket.
The controversy raged for some months, prompting McDaid to change his plans to retire from politics, and, eventually, party headquarters chose the three outgoing TDs as candidates.
The Blaney dynasty is truly remarkable, stretching back to 1927 when the current TD's grandfather, Neil, a strong supporter of Éamon de Valera, won a seat. Following his death in 1948, he was replaced by his son, also named Neil, who went on to become a long-serving minister and a powerful figure within Fianna Fáil until his split with the party in the aftermath of the 1970 arms crisis.
Thereafter, he represented the constituency as Independent Fianna Fáil, also serving in the European Parliament, and when he died in 1996, his brother, Harry, father of the current TD, won the by-election. Niall Blaney replaced his father in 2002 and the long rift with Fianna Fáil was healed, although not without controversy, when he joined the party.
The Blaneys always had a tight-knit and razor-sharp organisation, going back to the days when high-flying minister Neil Blaney led torch-light processions through his constituency, political master of all he surveyed.
But the changing times are evident in places like Letterkenny, where the foreign accents in hotels, shops and restaurants reflect a different Ireland.
McDaid has a strong base in Letterkenny, consolidated in part by his work as a local doctor, while Keaveney, based in Moville in the Inishowen peninsula, is an impressive electoral performer. Last time, admittedly as an outgoing minister, McDaid topped the poll with 9,614 first preferences, while Keaveney had 8,340.
Rossnakill-based Blaney had 6,124 first preferences, and held off the challenge of Fine Gael's two candidates, Bernard McGuinness, from Inishowen, and Seán Maloney, from Letterkenny, who polled a total of 7,637 first preferences between them.
Unlike 2002, when the party faced meltdown, Fine Gael is on a high this time, which will put its candidate, Senator Joe McHugh, in with a fighting chance of a seat. McHugh was elected to the Seanad in 2002, having served as a county councillor for the Letterkenny electoral area since 1999.
However, there are divisions in Fine Gael which could hamper McHugh's chances. Letterkenny-based councillor Jimmy Harte, son of former TD Paddy Harte, who represented the constituency from 1961 to 1997, is running as an Independent because he failed to get a party nomination. He believes that if Fine Gael was running two candidates it would recover its seat.
Sinn Féin's Pádraig MacLochlainn secured a seat on Donegal County Council when he topped the poll in the Inishowen electoral area in 2004 with 2,264 first preferences. The extent to which he will take votes from Blaney, some of whose strongly republican supporters were not pleased with his joining Fianna Fáil, is difficult to say. But there is no doubt that, as in the case of McHugh, he will challenge for a seat.
On a bad day for Fianna Fáil, its second seat could be vulnerable to a strong performance by MacLochlainn and McHugh.
Health issues, such as facilities at Letterkenny hospital, psychiatric and disability services, are dominating the campaign. Petty crime and antisocial behaviour are also featuring, as are complaints that the constituency has been neglected, in terms of its economic development, because of its distance from Dublin.
VERDICTFF - 2; SF - 1 (SF gain from FF)
