The French Socialist Party (PS) made a miraculous comeback in yesterday's legislative elections, winning between 202 and 210 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, according to estimates by France's three main polling institutes. This represents an increase of more than a third over the PS's 149 seats in the outgoing assembly.
Though President Nicolas Sarkozy's UMP will enjoy an absolute majority, with between 319 and 329 seats, the victory fell far short of the more than 400 seats which the right-wing president hoped to win and which opinion polls predicted he would obtain.
The third big surprise was the strong performance of the Communist Party (PCF), which will have between 12 and 19 seats in the new assembly. It had 21 seats in the last assembly but will no longer form a parliamentary group (for which 20 seats are required). However, it fared far better than expected after the first round.
Socialist deputy Laurent Fabius, who was re-elected with 67 per cent of the vote, probably instigated what he called the socialists' "spectacular rebound" by demanding on June 10th that the economy and finance minister, Jean-Louis Borloo, promise there would be no increase in VAT. Mr Borloo replied that the government would "look at everything, including VAT".
The probability of a VAT increase became the main issue of the past week.
Prime minister François Fillon said a 5 per cent rise was possible, whereupon the socialists printed posters saying, "Vote against VAT at 24.6 per cent".
Mr Sarkozy's "social VAT" - which figured in his presidential programme - would replace a part of the social charges that employers pay on salaries, but it could raise prices. UMP officials privately cursed Mr Borloo for handling the question badly.
Mr Sarkozy issued a statement on Thursday night, saying he would "not accept an increase in VAT in its present form, which would reduce the purchasing power of the French people".
The VAT affair coincided with a widespread perception that Mr Sarkozy was "giving presents to the rich".
The government has just announced that it will not give the traditional annual "push" to the French minimum wage next month. Mr Sarkozy's "fiscal package", which included a 50 per cent tax "shield", an end to 95 per cent of all death duties and an end to taxes and social charges on overtime, will cost an estimated €15 billion.
A five-point rise in VAT would bring in €45-€50 million.
With yesterday's vote, François Hollande's job as PS leader looks secure for the time being. The French "corrected the trend of the first round", he said.
"With this vote our fellow citizens wanted to express a doubt, even fear, about the first unjust measures of François Fillon's government . . . The blue wave that was supposed to sweep the country did not happen.
"There will be . . . diversity and pluralism. France will walk on two legs: a majority, for I recognise there is a majority, and an opposition." Mr Hollande promised the "renovation", even "refoundation if necessary", of the PS.
His partner and rival for the leadership of the PS, former presidential candidate Ségolène Royal, was radiant when she went on television. "The French wanted to give meaning to their vote," she said. "There was a realisation between the two rounds."
On TF1 television station, Mr Fabius noted the obvious paradox. "We are beaten; it's a fact, but we are nonetheless full of dynamism, and on the other side of the table, it's the winners who look a little pale."
Mr Borloo - who is certain to be blamed by the right for their disappointing performance - said: "We are not going to transform an absolute majority into a defeat . . . Everyone in this country knows, on the left and on the right, that we over-tax salaries and employment."
An exhausted-looking Mr Fillon appealed for unity. "There is not a people of the right against a people of the left," he said. "There is only one people, the French people, who must be respected . . . With our differences, we must work together, combine our ideas, imagine a future for our children.
"We must be capable of debating frankly without futile division. We must be able to achieve a national consensus on the great challenges of our century, like all modern countries do."
Yesterday's election brought to a close an exceptionally long campaign period. Mr Sarkozy now has the parliamentary majority he needs to pass his reforms, but he will have to contend with a reinvigorated opposition.
René Dosière, the socialist deputy who featured in The Irish Times on June 9th, was re- elected by 56.28 per cent. Jérôme Peyrat, the adviser to Mr Sarkozy who appeared in The Irish Times on Saturday, lost with a vote of 41 per cent in Périgord.