One of the Defence Forces' senior officers yesterday said the State could end its peacekeeping role in Lebanon if the UN did not receive sufficient security guarantees when Israel withdrew from the south of the country.
"If Ireland feels the guarantees are insufficient and the risks are too high, I don't think we would do it. It shouldn't be taken for granted," Brig Gen Jim Sreenan told The Irish Times in an interview at the Tyre logistics base of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon.
Gen Sreenan is the Deputy Force Commander of UNIFIL and the overall commander for all Irish troops here. The UN has asked him to stay on beyond his normal tour of duty to head contingency planning for the Israeli withdrawal.
"The Irish Government will look at the security environment" once the UN Security Council redefined UNIFIL's mandate, Gen Sreenan said.
Thousands more blue helmets, some from new contributing countries, could be needed. "All of the member-governments will be looking at security guarantees . . . We have seen what happens when UN peacekeepers are asked to act with insufficient resources."
The Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ehud Barak, has promised that 1,500 Israeli occupation troops will pull out of southern Lebanon by July 7th, but the withdrawal might be completed as early as the third week in June. Under their 1978 mandate, UNIFIL troops are supposed to verify the pullout and move down to the border.
"It all sounds so simple," Gen Sreenan said. "But anything could happen. We would like to see a ceasefire but there is no sign of one. We expect Hizbullah to pursue the Israelis to the border. There is a serious danger the whole thing could spill over. When hostilities start there is a likelihood of civilian casualties."
The Shia Muslim Hizbullah are attacking the Israelis and their Lebanese allies in the South Lebanon Army (SLA) every day. Israel has said it will avenge any action against its departing troops, and UNIFIL officers fear bombardments and a refugee crisis comparable to that created by Israel's April 1996 "Grapes of Wrath" offensive.
"I am optimistic," Gen Sreenan said. "I still hope even at this late stage there could be an agreement. The way I see it, this is a lose-lose situation. The Israelis can retaliate massively. They can level Lebanon. But 10 people with Katyushas [missiles] can still paralyse the economy of northern Israel."
Two main issues are preventing an orderly withdrawal, Gen Sreenan said.
"One is the definition of the border. The second is what an Israeli Defence Forces withdrawal means in terms of the SLA. We would have to see their infrastructure dismantled, a stop to any resupply from Israel and the removal of their heavy weapons."
The 2,500-strong SLA was created by Israel to help enforce its occupation of southern Lebanon. The SLA leader, Gen Antoine Lahd, said this week his men would keep their weapons and form village militias along the Israeli border; a risky and unacceptable outcome for UNIFIL, which is often fired on by the SLA. Israel has so far refused to commit itself to disarming the SLA.
