CYPRUS: Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, arrives in Nicosia today in a last-ditch attempt to secure Greek and Turkish Cypriot acceptance of the third version of his settlement plan.
The latest proposal calls for a bizonal federation called the "United Cyprus Republic" made up of two "constituent states" linked by a weak common administration.
This is seen as approaching the demand by the Turkish Cypriot leader, Mr Rauf Denktash, for a "two-state solution," while maintaining the federal formula approved by the Greek Cypriots and the international community. Other provisions are viewed as a bid for acceptance by Mr Denktash.
The Turkish Cypriots are set to retain the strategic Karpass peninsula. Twenty-one rather than 28 per cent of Greek Cypriot refugees would be entitled to return to their former homes in the Turkish Cypriot zone after six rather than four years. And, more than half of the 110,000 Turkish settlers could be permitted to stay.
As compensation, the Greek Cypriots were awarded 28.2 rather than 28.5 per cent of the territory of the island, providing for the return of 15 villages in the Famagusta and Morphou districts. The number of mainland Greek and Turkish troops would be limited to 6,000 until all would be withdrawn once Turkey joins the European Union (EU). As a sweetener to secure, in particular, Greek Cypriot backing, Britain has offered to hand over 41 square miles of the 99 square mile Sovereign Base Area to the Greek Cypriots and four square miles to the Turkish Cypriots.
While the new proposal has, reportedly, been put forward on a take-it-or-leave-it basis, it was promptly dismissed out of hand by Mr Denktash, who characterised it as "a crime against humanity".
Mr Denktash accused the UN of "offering cake to the Greek Cypriots and peanuts to us". He once again rejected the February 28th deadline set by the UN for acceptance of the plan.
Mr Denktash and the outgoing Cyprus President, Mr Glafkos Clerides, have been negotiating on and off for a decade without reaching agreement. Thirteen months of intensive negotiations foundered on Mr Denktash's demand for recognition for his breakaway state and a "two-state solution" involving the creation of a confederation of two independent states.
Observers on both sides of the Green Line are not optimistic. They see the Annan plan as a "last chance" for a deal permitting both communities to vote in referenda on EU membership at the end of March and sign the EU accession agreement on April 16th. If there is no agreement the Turkish Cypriot bid for membership will be frozen. While a large majority of Turkish Cypriots are prepared to accept the Annan plan, Mr Denktash, the Turkish military and old guard Turkish politicians are determined to maintain the status quo achieved by Turkey's occupation of the north in 1974.
The only possibility of reaching an agreement, said one source, would be for the Turkish Cypriots to vote in a referendum on the settlement package. This could prompt Mr Denktash to resign and be succeeded by a Turkish Cypriot politician prepared to sign. But time is too short for this scenario to play out. If it did the new Greek Cypriot President, Mr Tassos Papadopoulos, who is committed to finding a "workable" settlement, would be put on the spot after he takes office on Friday.