While some Arab media have ignored events in Tehran, others praised the opposition, writes MICHAEL JANSEN
SUNNI ARAB leaders are gleeful over deepening divisions within Iran’s Shia regime, but they are fearful of popular risings on their own streets.
Syndicated columnist Rami Khoury writes: “Arab regimes have worked themselves into a lose-lose situation whereby they would be unhappy if the Iranian regime stayed in power, and unhappy if it were removed through popular challenge.”
Following the proclamation of his victory, President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was congratulated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraqi president Jalal Talabani, dissident Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, and Lebanese Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
Most leaders in the pro-western regional camp kept silent, except the non-Arab president of Turkey, Abdullah Gul, who was among the first to convey his congratulations.
While some Arab media ignored events in Tehran, others celebrated demonstrations against Ahmadinejad’s re-election, and sympathised with his main rival Mir Hussein Mousavi, who claims the election was rigged.
Developments in Iran were particularly sensitive in Sunni-ruled Bahrain, which has a Shia majority. Publication of Akhbar al-Khaleej, a leading newspaper, was suspended after a columnist attacked the Iranian regime and the editor warned local Shias not to emulate the Iranians by adopting "people's power".
In the wake of the crackdown on protesters, few Arab political figures took stands. Hizbullah’s deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem called the demonstrations a “plot from overseas” and castigated Britain for playing a major role.
UAE foreign minister Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan said the stabilisation of Iran is extremely important for the UAE, and called for Tehran to be open about its nuclear programme.
Analysts have criticised some Arab nationalists and liberals for siding with Mr Ahmadinejad due to his anti-western line, opposition to the US occupation of Iraq, and strong support for the Palestinian Hamas and Lebanese Hizbullah movements, which many Arabs praise for their continued struggle against Israel’s occupation of Arab land.
A Jordanian politician quoted by Rana Gargour on the Bitter Lemons International website said the crisis was caused by the failure of the Iranian regime to modernise, and the rise of forces favouring change. But he observed that western media and opponents of Ahmadinejad have exaggerated the scope of the confrontation between protesters and the regime.
A number of commentators said that Iran’s image among Muslims as a country combining Islamic rule and democracy has been tarnished.
Gamal Soltan of the Ahram Strategic Studies Centre in Cairo wrote on Bitter Lemons that the Iranian regime “can no longer claim the legitimacy it professed for decades”.
Its erosion, he said, “will now definitely affect the balance of power between moderates and radicals in the Middle East – and not in favour of the latter”.
He also predicted that this crisis “has brought an end to a short-lived relaxation in Iranian-western relations”.
Raghida Dergham, US correspondent of the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, reported that the Obama administration, which had sought dialogue with Iran, is drawing up a fresh strategy to deal with the new situation in Tehran.