Support for the legalisation of divorce has risen most dramatically among women and in the rural community since the 1995 referendum which approved divorce by 50.3 to 49.7 per cent, a comparison between today's Irish Times/TMS mrbi poll and one conducted on the day of that referendum shows. More women than men now approve of divorce, reversing the 1995 reality.
One in three women and the same proportion of rural dwellers have changed their view in the last 12 years (33 and 32 per cent respectively). At the other end of the scale, only one in 10 more of those then aged between 18 and 24 now back divorce legalisation.
The 1995 poll, conducted by MRBI, showed that this young age group was already the group which was strongest in supporting the removal of the divorce ban, at 63 per cent, while farmers and those aged over 65 were most resistant, with only 22 per cent in favour.
The result is the emergence of a growing national consensus for legalisation, manifested in a spread of those who, if a referendum were held today, would vote in favour of between 70 and 80 per cent across virtually all social classes, sexes, urban/rural dwellers, and age groups.
The exception remains farmers, among whom the barest majority support divorce today, at 51 per cent, but, up 29 percentage points. Farmers are today alone in still believing by majority that divorce has undermined marriage.
The spread of attitudes in the various groups in 1995 was between 22 and 63 per cent in favour, reflecting the extent to which the issue was deeply polarising in Irish society.
Among the age cohorts the group to manifest the largest swing in favour in the 12 years since is the 50 to 64-year-olds with a rise from 35 to 77 per cent, or 42 percentage points. This means that three in 10 of those now between these ages have changed their view in the period (those now in this cohort were in the 35-49 cohort in 1995).
The 1995 poll reflected the deep rural/urban divide at the time, with 51 per cent of urban voters supporting the removal of the ban to 37 per cent of rural dwellers (59 to 42 per cent when "don't knows" excluded). Today the gap is 78 per cent to 70 per cent.
The male/female divide in favour of divorce in 1995 was 48 to 43 per cent, and is now 74 to 75 per cent, with women actually passing out men.
The 1995 Irish Times/MRBI poll was conducted on the day of voting, November 24th, 1995, among a representative sample of 1,250 electors. Its accuracy level was estimated at plus or minus 3 per cent but it reflected the actual result to within 1.3 per cent.
