Geraldine Kennedy, Political Editor, looks at the battleground in the constituencies and warns on pre-campaign assumptions
There is a clear consensus on the first day of the campaign that Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fáil will lead the next government. It is only a matter of picking a partner, if, some dare to believe, a marriage has to be contemplated at all.
But the theory that the election is all over before the campaign is fought has been proved wrong in the past, most notably in 1977.
The comfortable consensus, which is shared by all of Fianna Fáil, most members of the Progressive Democrats, even some members of Fine Gael and the Labour Party, could be dangerous this time. It ignores the precarious balance of seats held by Government and Opposition deputies on the dissolution of the 28th Dail. It presumes that the campaign, which will throw up issues and events, will have no effect. It excludes that elusive swing factor.
The consensus conceals the fact that over the five years of the longest-serving government in the history of the State, outside of the second World War, Mr Ahern's popularity has not produced electoral results. He has lost six by-elections and two referendums.
Nonetheless, it is difficult to see how five years of consistently high ratings in the opinion polls for the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil can be overturned during the campaign. There is a mountain to climb if Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party are to buck the trend in three weeks.
The battleground for the election will be in 42 constituencies, an increase of one since 1997. The new constituency of Dublin Mid West is a three-seater. There are changes in the number of seats in five other constituencies. Dublin North East, Dublin North West and Dublin West go from four to three seats. Dublin South Central increases from four to five seats. Dublin South West drops from five to four seats. For this election also, Carlow-Kilkenny becomes a four-seater because of the automatic re-election of the Ceann Comhairle, Seamus Pattison.
In the last general election in 1997, his first as leader, Bertie Ahern got a 12-seat bonus, with 39.33 per cent of the first-preference vote. He dispensed with another of the party's core principles, the seeking of transfers, to achieve that result.
The number of seats won in 1997 was: Fianna Fáil 77, Fine Gael 54, Labour Party 17, Democratic Left 4, Progressive Democrats 4, Green Party 2, Sinn Féin 1, Socialist Party 1 and Others 6.
After six by-elections, the amalgamation of DL with Labour and the movement of a couple of TDs from Fianna Fáil to Independent ranks, the state of the parties going into the 2002 election is: Fianna Fáil 74 (including Beverley Cooper-Flynn who has been ratified as a party candidate although she is outside the parliamentary party), Fine Gael 54, Labour 21 (including the Ceann Comhairle who is automatically re-elected), PDs 4, Green Party 2, Sinn Féin 1, Socialist Party 1 and Others 9.
The Others comprise Thomas Gildea, Harry Blaney, Mildred Fox and Jackie Healy-Rae; Tony Gregory, Seamus Healy and Michael Lowry; and Denis Foley and Liam Lawlor, both Fianna Fáil TDs who are not members of the parliamentary party.
In real terms, the minority coalition is contesting the election with 76 Fianna Fáil and 4 PD seats. The combined strength of Fine Gael (54) and Labour (21) is 75 seats; with the Greens (2) is 77 seats.
The Fine Gael leader, Michael Noonan, has consistently maintained that Fine Gael and Labour need to win only eight more seats from Fianna Fáil and/or the PDs to form an alternative government. The marginals which Fine Gael is targeting for those seats are: North Tipperary (from FF), Clare (from FF), Limerick East (from the PDs), Donegal North East (from FF or Ind FF), Dublin Mid West (a new seat), Cork North West (from FF), Dublin South Central (from FF) and Dublin North West (from FF).
Fine Gael acknowledges that it could be under pressure in Carlow-Kilkenny (from the Greens), in Sligo-Leitrim (from an Independent) and Dublin North East (with four outgoing TDs challenging for the three seats). But it completely rejects the "meltdown" theory. Hard-working TDs with a good track record are doing well.
Labour agrees with Fine Gael that eight seats have to be won to change the government. The primary seats which Labour is targeting are in Dublin: Dublin Central (from FF or FG), Dún Laoghaire (from FG), Dublin South Central, Dublin West (from FG), Dublin Mid West (the new constituency), and Dublin South (from the PDs or FG).
It also hopes to win seats in Wicklow, Meath, Carlow-Kilkenny (from FG), Cork East (from FG), Cork South Central and North Central (from FF and FG), Tipperary North (from FG) and believes that it has an outside chance in Cork South West.
The difference between the seats deemed winnable by Fine Gael and Labour could hold the key to the outcome of the election.Fine Gael has fixed its aim on Fianna Fáil seats while Labour is targeting many Fine Gael seats.
Fianna Fáil enters the campaign expecting to form the next government. The findings of private opinion polls, which seemed too good to be true, have been supported by a plethora of constituency polls. There is loose talk in the ranks of the prospect of an overall majority.
To win an overall majority, last achieved in 1977, Fianna Fáil would need to get three out of five seats in Wexford, Galway West and Mayo. The party would have to win two out of four seats in Dublin South East and hold two out of four in Dublin South West.
Saner strategists believe the party can secure 77 to 80 seats and, on a very good day, a return to single-party government. The PD strategy is to maintain the need for coalition government. It goes into the campaign two seats down and will be hard put to return with four seats. With the retirement of founder members, Des O'Malley and Bobby Molloy, it believes that it has a realistic chance of picking up a maximum of three new seats: Laois-Offaly, Tim O'Malley and Michael McDowell.
The two smaller parties, Sinn Féin and the Green Party, have witnessed a growth and stability in their support base over a number of opinion polls.
Going into the campaign on 8 per cent nationally, Sinn Féin could reasonably expect to win three Dáil seats. However, its peace-maker profile has been dented with vigilantism and other developments in recent months. The Green Party, on 5 per cent for the last year, hopes to pick up a seat in Carlow-Kilkenny and, as an outside bet, Cork South Central.