Talking goes on as clock ticks towards suspension

When a tired and downbeat looking Taoiseach claimed in Cornwall late on Thursday night that he had made "some progress" during…

When a tired and downbeat looking Taoiseach claimed in Cornwall late on Thursday night that he had made "some progress" during the day, there was deep scepticism.

After all, he and his officials and Ministers had spent yet another of those days in intensive talks, mainly with republicans, but had arrived to meet the British Prime Minister with no news of a breakthrough. Earlier the British had suggested there would be no meeting unless there was progress. Now Mr Ahern was arriving late at night with apparently little to say.

However, he was speaking the truth: there had been progress; not nearly enough to meet the requirement that the IRA finally bring "clarity" to its stated attitude to decommissioning, but enough to allow him to tell Mr Blair that matters had inched forward.

It was the second time in three days the Government had bought a short breathing space before the shutters came down on the Northern political institutions. On Tuesday morning, the Northern Secretary and his officials travelled to Dublin with a view to telling the Minister for Foreign Affairs that the game appeared to be up and suspension would be announced almost immediately.

READ MORE

By the evening, it was confirmed that an announcement would not take place until Thursday, the plan to publish the de Chastelain report (almost certainly hastening the end) was abandoned, and Mr Mandelson was talking about a breathing space. Throughout Tuesday the Taoiseach and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, plus senior officials, had worked to assure this outcome. On Thursday they did it again, ensuring a suspension announcement planned for the afternoon was postponed to the evening and then announced as part of a further push for agreement rather than as an acceptance of failure. This was less than the hoped-for postponement of the announcement, but it again allowed for more time.

That night, less than 48 hours since the de Chastelain report was presented to the two governments, Dublin believed that a firmer form of words than those given to Gen de Chastelain last Monday night might be available from the IRA.

The key to progress lies in the interaction between the chairman of the decommissioning body, Gen de Chastelain, and the IRA interlocutor appointed to talk to him about weapons decommissioning. Last Monday night, the interlocutor met the general for the third time.

What is required in these meetings, as Mr Seamus Mallon said at Westminster this week, is an IRA answer to two straightforward questions: will it begin to decommission its weapons, and if so, when?

Reliable sources close to the process this week say the IRA's response to Gen de Chastelain on Monday night was what it said in a public statement the following afternoon. This response does not answer the questions summarised by Mr Mallon, but makes a number of broadly positive observations.

According to this statement, the IRA had told the general that "we are totally committed to the peace process, that the IRA wants a permanent peace, that the declaration and maintenance of the cessation, which is now entering its fifth year, is evidence of this, that the IRA's guns are silent and that there is no threat to the peace process from the IRA".

While positive in tone, this clearly avoids the issue at the heart of the Ulster Unionist threat to walk out of the institutions, and the reality that unless it is dealt with those institutions will be suspended.

Not only is there no decommissioning, there is no timetable for decommissioning, nor is there even a commitment that there will ever be any decommissioning. The Government has given up hope of achieving decommissioning at this stage; the hope is that a firm commitment and timetable might be enough to persuade the UUP to continue operating the political institutions.

All efforts since Gen de Chastelain's re port was presented early on Tuesday have been aimed at hardening up the IRA's positive comments. The key discussions took place between the Taoiseach, ministers and senior officials, and the republican movement. Father Alex Reid, the Belfast priest who was a key figure in brokering the IRA's first ceasefire, has also been involved. Individuals who have been involved in the process for a long time say the new Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, has already shown himself to be a significant addition to the Government team.

All hope now rests on the talks between the Government and republicans. Government officials and Sinn Fein negotiators have worked on new drafts of a stronger IRA commitment, which have in turn been shown to IRA figures for their comment.

Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness do not have to travel far to talk to the IRA - it means talking to their own people - and channels of communication were available to them at all times this week. In addition, individuals who can be described as being "close to IRA thinking" have been on Sinn Fein delegations at recent meetings and discussions on the issue.

Sources close to this week's intensive activity say there has been regular close contact between the Sinn Fein leaders involved in discussions and representatives of the broader republican movement. Texts drafted during these contacts are believed to be discussed within the republican movement outside the talks process to ensure that those involved in the talks are fully aware of what will be acceptable to the rest of the movement.

Discussions and contacts will continue next week as the legislation to allow suspension of the institutions makes its way quickly through Westminster. The scope for some so far unthought-of compromise emerging seems limited, but it's not over until it's over - or, as Mr Mandelson said last Tuesday: "Something only becomes inevitable when there is no other option."