McDowell believes that the polls are wrong, but the PDs still face a major challenge, writes Mark Hennessy
The death of the Progressive Democrats has been forecast many times, but they have always survived, and often, even prospered in the face of adversity.
This time, however, the challenge is undeniable, regardless of the confident predictions voiced by an ebullient party leader yesterday morning.
Forecasting "double-digit" seat numbers, McDowell has quickly moved to attack the alternative coalition's Achilles' heel - its relative lack of ministerial experience.
Whether it will work or not is open to question, but it will certainly be personal, judging by Mary Harney's move to name the people readying to take her place.
By committing to having Harney back in the same department if re-elected, they are gambling that voters will regard such certainty as an advantage. McDowell's decision yesterday to place so much focus on Harney's performance is an indication that he will heavily play the reform card in the campaign.
Up to now, medical consultants and nurses have never faced a minister who could actually benefit from being in conflict with them, but private research commissioned by the Progressive Democrats, it is understood, indicates that those who like the party's message like it very, very much.
However, the message that the health service has enjoyed "a transformation" under Harney's reign may be a hard sell in many quarters. The general campaign strategy is, so far, simple to divine.
Prosperity won can be easily endangered and Fine Gael, Labour and others would endanger it.
While voters may react to some judiciously created fear, they will not vote for it alone, so the Progressive Democrats must also offer hope and a plan.
Conscious that they will be attacked about their record in office, they have not been slow to put forward a detailed manifesto.
And it rains with goodies, based upon the economy growing by 5 per cent a year and tax revenues by an even greater margin - all with tax cuts. Even better, the State's net national debt would also disappear, though it is as yet unclear if voters are equally buoyant about short-term prospects. Some of the promises are deliberately targeted at key voters: the elderly, for instance, are to be wooed with promises to increase pensions by 50 per cent over the next five years.
Most parties are offering the same, or will do so by the campaign's end, but the Progressive Democrats will lay heavy stock on the increases given over the five years.
Tax cut promises are repeated, as are stamp duty changes - though the party commits to reform immediately after the election and before TDs go on a summer break.
Offering proof that campaigns never run to plan, the Progressive Democrats were faced yesterday with further allegations about more Manchester payments to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.
Without proof that the allegations stood up, McDowell got off easily yesterday, though the situation will get tougher if the Mahon tribunal repeats the charges in formal session.
Last October, McDowell gave Ahern a pardon on a promise of ethics legislation that was never put into law before the Dáil dissolved. Needing to emphasise his own party's agenda, he will not want to spend time facing questions about Ahern's answers, or lack of them.
Given that Fianna Fáil remains his best chance of power, McDowell, indeed, would be much happier if Ahern does not get bogged down on the issue either.