Ireland is unlikely to meet its global environmental obligations under the Kyoto protocol greenhouse gas agreement. Liam Reid examines the Government's record of promises made to the electorate . . . but rarely kept
Ask most climatologists and they will tell you that global warming is a fact of life, even in Ireland.
Warmer summers, wetter winters, increased coastal erosion; studies of recent years have shown the effects are already being felt on this small island and will increase markedly over the lifetime of many of the electorate. It's a global problem, with the need for a global solution.
Minister for the Environment Dick Roche and other members of the Government would argue that they have been playing their part in that solution since they entered office in 1997.
They signed up to the Kyoto protocol in 1998, an international agreement setting legally binding limits for greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide and methane.
In Ireland's case this limits greenhouse gas emissions to 13 per cent above 1990 levels, or just over 63 million tonnes a year, between 2008 and 2012.
The Government has acknowledged that it is not an easy target to reach, given Ireland's huge economic growth, but it is one that there is a determination to meet.
In November 2000, as part of this determination, the Government published its climate change strategy, which it said would rein in the steep rises in emissions and if implemented would ensure Ireland plays its part tackling climate change. The Government said it had a "crystal clear intent" to tackle the problem, it announced at the time.
Nearly six years on, the Government and the Department of the Environment is due to publish an updated strategy next month which it will forward to the European Commission.
However, many of the commitments in the original document have either been abandoned, shelved or seriously delayed. It leaves the Government with a problem that will cost the taxpayer anywhere between €180 million and €1 billion between now and 2012.
SO IS THE GOVERNMENT LIVING up to its promises to the electorate?
In 2002, it said that "appropriate tax measures, prioritising carbon dioxide emissions, will be introduced on a phased basis across all sectors taking into account social and economic objectives".
This commitment was abandoned in September 2004, when the Government claimed the reductions in emissions it would achieve did not merit the measure, and that it would impact negatively on lower income people more reliant on peat and coal.
Experts, such as the ESRI have disagreed with this interpretation, however, and suggested it would work.
The strategy's most notable success has been in the commitment to introduce an emissions trading scheme to set a cap on the amount of emissions industry is allowed to produce, and which is being implemented in full. While the Government will claim the credit, it is in fact a European Union initiative, and is one the Government is legally obliged to follow under the European legislation.
Other measures aimed at industry and energy, not required by EU law, have not fared particularly well.
The strategy promised "measures supporting the ceasing of use of coal at Moneypoint power station", the single biggest industrial source of CO2 emissions. This was abandoned due to energy security concerns.
It also promised the "rebalancing of VRT [ vehicle registration tax] and motor tax", from being based on engine size to being based on the emissions. Again this promise remains unimplemented, with the exception of cars that run on bio-fuel. This is also a significant problem, as the fuel efficiencies of better designed cars have been eroded by Irish people buying larger cars like SUVs and luxury saloons.
Furthermore, the Government is resisting an initiative to create an EU-wide motor tax system to encourage green motoring.
The Government can, however, point to its success in keeping to its promise for "an expansion of renewable energy".
This was very slow to begin with, amid complaints from industry operators that the previous Government grants system acted as a barrier to wind and renewable energies. The rising price of oil has now made wind more attractive, and the 13 per cent target for renewables by 2010 looks like being achieved. Our climate change strategy also promised "negotiated agreements with industry". This system, working well in Britain and abroad, would see a climate change levy on smaller companies, which would be repaid if they introduced energy efficiencies.
Again it has not been implemented, despite the advice of Sustainable Energy Ireland.
"The examination of investment support from the perspective of greenhouse gas emissions," was also promised in the strategy. The Government can point to a €200 million bio-fuel investment programme over the next 10 years, to meet an EU requirement for 2 per cent bio-fuel use by 2010. A €60 million plus grant system for industry and homes to switch to renewable energy sources is also now in place. However, both measures only started this year.
In terms of agriculture, the strategy promised "a reduction in methane emissions from the national herd, equivalent to a 10 per cent reduction in livestock numbers". It has largely been achieved, but only through EU agricultural policy reform.
Its promise that "use of nitrogenous fertiliser will be reduced by 10 per cent" should have occurred by 2002, through the introduction of the nitrates directive, which will not be fully enforced until later this year.
There was also to be a "review of the forestry programme" to increase the amount of trees, which reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Instead forestry grants were actually cut in 2002. The strategy promised "improved spatial and energy use planning" to help reduce the reliance on private transport.
While the national spatial strategy was published in late 2002, there has actually been a relaxation in one-off housing and retail outlet guidelines.
It also promised "more efficient new buildings" by introducing new regulations requiring better insulation and building materials, to reduce the energy needed to heat them, from 2002.
However, it introduced a "transition period" which meant that the new rules were not implemented until the end of January last year.
A decision was also taken to relax the rules, which meant that hollow block walls, banned in other countries but used widely in Ireland, could continue to be used.
Since 2000, when the new regulations were signalled, nearly 300,000 new homes have been built, the vast majority to the older, less energy efficient standards. Sustainable Energy Ireland estimates that at present, Irish homes typically use 35 per cent more energy than their European counterparts, or more than eight tonnes per house.
It also promised awareness campaigns. Unlike Britain where there is a major television, radio and newspaper campaign, the current Government campaign is confined mainly to a website promoting more efficient energy use.
Finally, there was to be "intensive reviews" of the plan every two years. There has been one update so far, and this took place four years ago.
THE DEPARTMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT seeks to defend the Government's record on greenhouse gas emissions, by saying the emissions have been cut from a high of 31 per cent in 2001 to just over 23 per cent in 2004, "despite economic growth of around 15 per cent in the same period".
According to a statement, a "wide range of measures have contributed to this, including structural change in industry and agriculture, cleaner electricity generation, increased penetration of renewable energy and improvements in public transport".
"Many further measures are in place since 2004, including the Emissions Trading Scheme for industry, more energy-efficient building regulations, and financial incentives for bio-fuels and greener homes.
"Our Kyoto target must be reached in the 2008-2012 period. The National Climate Change Strategy provides a long-term framework. Many of its proposals are in place, others are being put in place, and some will not proceed in the light of new analysis."
The strategy is subject to constant review in the light of changing circumstances, the department states.
It also states that while the first review was published in 2002, there were also detailed independent analyses commissioned and published in 2004 and 2006 to inform the Government's decisions on the allocation of the emissions reductions between the emissions trading sector and the rest of the economy.
"The Government will shortly publish a consultation document incorporating a full review of progress to date and setting out a range of possible measures to augment those already in the strategy."
However, despite the reviews, the Government has simply failed to implement sufficient policies to see a sufficient reduction in emissions. Indeed, the single biggest cut in emissions in recent years came not from Government policy, but from the closure of Irish Fertilisers in Arklow and Irish Steel in Cork.
The lack of implemented policies is going to cost the taxpayer.
The "13 per cent above 1990 levels" target or 63 million tonne target is not going to be met and it will have to resort to using the emissions trading system instead.
The current estimates are that the State will overshoot its target by seven million tonnes a year between 2008 and 2012.
The Government is keen to stress that this seven million figure is two million less than was estimated last year. The lowering in this shortfall is not because of Government policies or initiatives, but because there was a recalculation of the State's limit upwards, by two million tonnes.
The remaining seven million tonne shortfall will be paid for in two ways. Three million tonnes of this shortfall will be the responsibility of large industry and energy firms, which will either have to reduce emissions or buy "credits" to continue at current levels.
It is expected they will choose the latter option mostly, which will cost anywhere between €225 million and over €1 billion to buy the credits.
These costs will be passed on to the consumer, leading to an expected rise in electricity prices of between 2 to 4 per cent.
The remaining four million tonnes will be the responsibility of the Government, which has indicated it will also buy credits. Again the cost will be anywhere between €180 million and €1 billion over the five year period.
Despite all of the stated intentions of nearly six years ago, the Government will, in the main, be buying its way out of the problem, rather than taking the risk to introduce potentially painful measures.