Events at the tribunal were not allowed to spoil the mood, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor.
The recent travails of Taoiseach Bertie Ahern at the Mahon tribunal did not spoil the good mood among Fianna Fáil TDs who gathered in Co Wicklow yesterday for their annual review of the political scene. They were feeling rested and relaxed after their holidays and, more importantly, were still basking in the glow of the three-in-a-row election victory in May. They had no intention of allowing the tribunal to spoil the party.
In any case the normal reaction of Fianna Fáil TDs when their leader is in trouble is to rally around. A stream of Ministers expressed their support for Ahern in media interviews as they arrived for the two-day event.
Backbench TDs were prepared to discuss tribunal events but most maintained it was having no public impact, saying their constituents were not interested.
"I have had some very busy clinics since the beginning of the month and people have been in to talk about all sorts of issues like houses, medical cards and tax, but not one person mentioned the tribunal," said one TD, and most colleagues reported the same story. Interestingly, though, while TDs are comforted by the fact that their constituents are not raising the topic, some privately conceded that Ahern's testimony was not totally convincing. However, they took the view that if voters are not up in arms there is no reason for them to worry.
There was almost complete agreement that the tribunal hearings will not have any impact in the short term, although some TDs felt the episode might have an influence over the timing of Ahern's departure. That he will be stepping down at some stage in the lifetime of the Government will be one of the key political events of the coming years and in time the succession will become the dominant issue. At this stage the general view among TDs is that he will not be departing until some time after the European and local elections in 2009.
However, an issue that has to be factored into the equation is the likely timing of the Mahon tribunal report dealing with the payments to Ahern and the account he has given of them. A few TDs wondered if Ahern might not consider it best to step down before a potentially critical report was issued, but others felt that it would not have an impact on the timing of his departure.
The Taoiseach made no reference to the tribunal in his opening speech to his parliamentary colleagues. He focused on the fact that the party was back in Government in a new coalition that involved the Greens as well as the PDs, and he spoke enthusiastically about the programme for government.
He also tried to lift his TDs for two looming referendum campaigns, one on children's rights and the other on the new EU treaty, assuming there is agreement among the 25 member states about it. Given that Ireland is likely to be the only state holding a referendum, Ahern speculated that people dedicated to attacking the EU will come here "from all over Europe to join those who have spent the last 35 years predicting that Europe was about to destroy us".
The paradox is that the Green Party, which has spent its entire existence attacking the EU, is now in Government with Fianna Fáil and it will be fascinating to see how it approaches the referendum, particularly in the light of Ahern's huge personal contribution to shaping the treaty.
"A low turnout is the major objective of those who would prefer to ignore completely the reality of our interdependence with other countries. We must not take the public for granted. This treaty is, quite simply, good for Europe and good for Ireland," said the Taoiseach. Ahern and Minister for Finance Brian Cowen both stressed the strength of the Irish economy, although Cowen warned that current spending could not continue to rise at the rate experienced in recent years.
One item up for discussion in a serious way was the prospect of Fianna Fáil becoming an all-Ireland party. Ahern announced that Fianna Fáil intended to develop a strategy for organising on a 32-county basis.
Over the past decade and more some sort of merger with the SDLP was mooted from time to time but it never got very far because significant elements of the SDLP favour the party's links with the Labour Party and its continued role in the Socialist Group in the European Parliament.
A number of things have changed in recent times. Fianna Fáil believes it has crushed Sinn Féin in the Republic and there is now a view in the party either formally or informally that it can mop up the SDLP and give Sinn Féin a run for its money in the North.
On the SDLP side there is considerable disillusionment with Labour over its Seanad vote-swap deal with Sinn Féin, and the party may be much more receptive to a merger with Fianna Fáil. One way or another Fianna Fáil is now on the road to becoming an all-Ireland party and the impact of that on both sides of the Border will be interesting in the decade ahead.