The prospect of widespread industrial action by teachers is the biggest issue at second level, with pickets on schools a possibility as early as the new year.
The claim for a 30 per cent pay rise from the Association of Secondary Teachers, Ireland (ASTI) is currently with the barrister, Mr Gerry Durcan SC, a Government-appointed arbitrator. He has the unenviable task of considering the ASTI claim in the context of increasing Government concern about inflation.
In his terms of reference, he has to consider two major factors in weighing up the claim. The first is the effect it would have on the State's teaching force, in terms of making the profession an attractive career option. The second is the policy of the Government on public sector pay, which at this early stage in the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (PPF) is likely to be niggardly.
Most sources agree that Mr Durcan will not be able to recommend the ASTI claim and will instead make an offer under the existing terms of the PPF. The union has signalled that such an offer would be rejected and a ballot on industrial action would take place.
The nature of the industrial action would be decided by members, according to the ASTI president, Mr Don McCluskey. But most union sources say it would begin with regional one-day stoppages and could end with the disruption of State exams.
The ASTI leadership has stressed that industrial action of any type is a last resort. According to Mr McCluskey, the current crisis should come as no surprise to the Government, which has known about the pay claim for more than a year and has shown no flexibility.
However, the Government, for the first time, has put a stark price tag of £210 million on the pay claim. At a meeting last week, its officials pointed out that if primary teachers also got the increase the bill would rise to £400 million.
With the Government issuing grim warnings like this and the ASTI growing restless, there appears to be little room for manoeuvre. A major problem for the ASTI, which has been riven by divisions over the last year, is the lack of support it has received from the other two teaching unions. At a meeting with public relations professionals in recent months, the ASTI was advised that this represented a serious chink in its armour.
In an attempt to deal with this, the union has been trying to form alliances with both the Teachers Union of Ireland (TUI) and the Irish National Teachers Organisation (INTO). However, INTO and TUI leaders are more interested in trying to get extra money from the bench-marking body set up under the PPF. This aims to reward public sector groups who agree to improve productivity.
Privately, the leaders of the other two unions say the ASTI's campaign is doomed and will create bitter divisions. They hope the ASTI will come back into the fold by co-operating with the bench-marking body.
On the ground, the sight of teachers picketing schools will put the TUI, in particular, under severe pressure. In many schools, ASTI and TUI members work alongside each other. One can imagine how difficult it would be for TUI members to cross picket lines and go into school.
Nevertheless, the ASTI leadership is resolute about its intended action. The idea of rejoining the ICTU and becoming part of the consensus on pay policy is loathsome to many of its members. Their view is that the ordinary channels have been tried and have yielded nothing.
Like many modern industrial relations disputes, this one could end up being fought out in newspaper columns, on radio phone-ins and on television, rather than outside the school gates.
The ASTI has already realised this and is running expensive television advertisements which focus on the unseen work done by teachers. The Irish Times, in a poll earlier this year, found a narrow majority of the public sympathetic to the pay claim. However, parents might change their outlook if their children are unable to attend school in the dark days of winter.
While these thoughts are occupying the ASTI leadership, it also knows that an election could be just around the corner. As one member said this week: "In that case, all bets could be off."