Thailand's stability tied to welfare of its fragile king

Letter from Bangkok: Visitors to Thailand who choose to look beyond its beaches and bars quickly become aware of the overriding…

Letter from Bangkok:Visitors to Thailand who choose to look beyond its beaches and bars quickly become aware of the overriding influence in the country of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the world's longest-reigning monarch, who last year celebrated 60 years on the Thai throne.

The king's portrait - his face serious - looks out from giant posters on virtually every street corner. Banners and monuments proclaiming the virtues of a monarch felt by many Thais to be imbued with near mystical powers are everywhere. Newspapers dutifully carry hagiographies extolling the virtues of Bhumibol's long reign. TV stations carry daily bulletins of royal activities. On Monday of each week millions of Thais put on T-shirts of yellow - the royal colour - emblazoned with "Long Live the King" messages.

Just how long the life of the 79-year-old king will be and what happens after his demise is a subject earnestly debated in private but very rarely in public for fear of contravening Thailand's strict lèse majesté laws. On recent public occasions Bhumibol, who has suffered periodic bouts of heart disease, has appeared frail, his always quiet voice more subdued than ever.

Military coups are almost as regular in Thailand as the monsoon rains. The king is regarded as the one who, over the years, has prevented this country of 62 million from sliding into chaos.

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Now the question here is one that has troubled many other monarchies - who will succeed to the throne? Moreover, will Bhumibol's successor be capable of so adroitly controlling the various factions of often corrupt military and business interests which constantly manoeuvre for power?

According to Thai tradition the natural successor is the crown prince - Maha Vajiralongkorn. But the prince, now 54, is not held in anything like the same esteem as his father. Prone at times to violent outbursts and fits of diplomatic pique, the prince has had a troubled private life. Bhumibol has always appeared a devoted husband to his childhood sweetheart, Sirikit, and a proud family man. In contrast, Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn has had three consorts and his marital affairs have been tempestuous: tales of his philandering and purportedly dubious business dealings are the source of much Bangkok gossip.

Ubolrat, the elder daughter of Bhumibol and Sirikit, though close to the king in her youth, married an American while studying in the US and was for many years not welcome in palace circles. While the crown prince is said to have the support of Sirikit, the king is believed to favour Sirindhorn, the quiet, studious second daughter, as his successor. Sirindhorn is popular but there are serious doubts that she has either the strength of personality or the political skill to take on the monarchy - or that a male-dominated country such as Thailand is willing to countenance having a woman as head of state.

Some royal watchers say the most recent military putsch - in September last year - was tied to the succession issue. Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire businessman who was prime minister until being overthrown by the present military junta, was judged to have become too powerful and arrogant - he had also inveigled himself into the very heart of palace politics through business dealings with the crown prince. The theory is that the palace - concerned that the commoner Thaksin might be in a position to influence the succession - quietly encouraged the military to act.

A recent book on the king (The King Never Smiles by Paul Handley), which was banned in Thailand, reveals how such labyrinthine royal wheeler dealing has been a common feature Bhumibol's long reign. Born in the US and brought up mostly in Switzerland, Bhumibol spoke better French and English than Thai when he was crowned in 1946. He was, in many ways, the accidental king: Ananda, his older brother, was found shot dead in a mysterious accident in the royal palace in Bangkok. Bhumibol, a keen jazz player, photographer and painter, quickly adapted to the ways of Thai kingship. Though Thailand's absolute monarchy had been abolished in 1932, the palace and its advisers, in league with successive, mostly military-dominated administrations, helped to elevate Bhumibol to near sacerdotal status through the years, making him the ultimate symbol of Thai nationhood and its Buddhist religion. The king became widely admired for his focus on development projects and, unlike many members of the royal circle, his relatively unpretentious lifestyle.

Some coups have been peaceful, others bloody. In 1976 and again in 1992, hundreds were killed as the military opened fire on demonstrators. The king has always been portrayed as the ultimate peacemaker - the contenders for power summoned to the palace, shown on TV prostrating themselves before their monarch and asking forgiveness.

The king, though said to be above politics, has at times let his views be known - bridling at what he considers to be alien western concepts associated with democracy and the rule of law, emphasising the uniqueness of the Thai monarchical system and emphasising the need for economic self-sufficiency. At one stage Bhumibol surprised a group of visiting statesmen by making a stern defence of the military regime in Burma and branding the Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi a troublemaker.

Though Thailand has picked itself up after its economy took a nosedive following the Asia currency crisis of 1997, the future holds plenty of uncertainties. Attempts to quell a simmering and often violent rebellion by Muslim groups in the far south have come to nothing. A series of deadly bomb blasts in Bangkok at the new year have been variously blamed on Muslim extremists, supporters of ex-premier Thaksin, or - considered more likely - competing factions in the military and police.

The greatest uncertainty, however, is the future of the monarchy. Thais anxiously hope their king will live for a long time yet.