Profile Alexander LukashenkoEven accusations of ruthlessly suppressing opponents and a weak economy are unlikely to loosen president Alexander Lukashenko's iron grip on Belarus, writes Chris Stephen
When other leaders talk about Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko, the customary niceties of diplomatic discourse are swept aside. Condoleezza Rice calls him "Europe's last dictator". While the rest of the continent has opened up to the world following the end of communism, Belarus has gone the other way. Under the iron grip of the tall, moustachioed, 61-year-old, Belarus has come to resemble a Soviet Union theme park.
Same drab cities, same impoverished people, and same KGB - Lukashenko has made sure the former communist secret police, renamed by Russia, have kept their old initials in Belarus.
Yet it all started so well. In 1994 Lukashenko was elected in a landslide vote on an anti-corruption ticket.
Born in the countryside, he suffered a tough childhood, taunted by children because his mother was unmarried. But he had a sharp mind, personal charm and great ambition. He joined the Communist Party and became head of the youth wing, the Komsomol, at teacher training college. He rose to become director of a collective farm, before being elected as a deputy in the Supreme Soviet of Belarus in 1990.
He formed his own party, Communists for Democracy, and campaigned, almost single-handedly, to retain communism, albeit with a democratic structure.
The following year the Soviet Union collapsed and Lukashenko boasted of being the only Belarus deputy to vote against the change.
In 1993, he was elected chairman of the parliament's anti-corruption commission and his fortunes radically changed. At the time, Belarus, like much of eastern Europe, was finding out that independence brought problems. While a few got extremely rich, the majority found themselves worse off under capitalism than they had been under communism. Lukashenko seized his chance for glory. He accused 70 top officials, including the speaker of parliament, of corruption.
The move caused shock waves, infuriating the ruling elite but winning him grassroots popularity, and he swept to power in the presidential election in July 1994.
And then, suddenly, there he was. The former farm director seemed to believe that the problem with communism was not the ideal, but the fact that in the past it had been implemented by the wrong people. At once, he began to put that right.
Immediately curbs were placed on private business, and the wages of all state workers were doubled. The result, predictably, was inflation, but Lukashenko seemed unwilling to believe that an economy could not simply be planned by a manager.
He turned the screw harder. When he ran short of cash to pay the extra wages, he borrowed. The IMF and World Bank cried foul, cutting off Belarus from further support.
In September he signalled his annoyance by telling his air force to shoot down a balloon that had accidentally crossed into Belarussian airspace, killing the two American pilots.
The killing marked the start of an ever-deepening distrust between Minsk and the West.
In 1996 parliament accused Lukashenko of authoritarianism and 70 deputies signed an impeachment motion. In the frenzied atmosphere, Russia, which supplied him with cheap oil and gas, intervened as mediator, and Lukashenko survived.
A few months later he turned on his enemies. He organised a referendum - labelled a travesty by the opposition - to give himself new powers. Then armed police stormed the parliament and 89 deputies were replaced by Lukashenko loyalists. The prime minister, two ministers and seven of the 11 constitutional court judges resigned, but the president was unmoved.
Opposition newspapers complained and were shut down, and the president gave new powers to his KGB.
DESPITE CONTROLLING ALL the levers of power, Belarus's economy remained in the doldrums and he began reacting to each misfortune by further tightening the screw, hoping that each new layer of control would somehow make it all work.
As the economy worsened and pensioners and teachers went unpaid, he accused banks of being "economic saboteurs" and nationalised them.
This provoked a run on the currency, which he met by arresting 30 officials and parading on television some accused of being "enemies of the people". Foreign powers were also blamed for conspiring to keep Belarus poor.
In April 1998 he ordered the ambassadors of the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Japan to move out of a diplomatic compound, Drozdy, in Minsk's tree-lined suburbs, claiming new sewers needed to be dug. When the ambassadors refused, claiming the drains worked just fine, he ordered them out. All six states then withdrew their ambassadors from the country in protest, as did Russia after its embassy was taken over to provide Lukashenko with a new palace.
It was a theme borrowed from Soviet leaders, with the state's misfortunes being blamed on foreign powers and local traitors. Even sport was included, with Lukashenko accusing foreign judges of deliberately marking down Belarussian athletes at the Nagano Winter Olympics in 1998.
Relations with the West, already low, collapsed in 2000 when three opposition figures and a journalist suddenly disappeared. Months later, two dissidents from Lukashenko's administration turned up in the US to announce that the men had been murdered by a special forces death squad on the president's orders.
Washington demanded an investigation, but Lukashenko's government shut it down after a few inconclusive months. When the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) complained, Lukashenko expelled their delegation.
The US and the European Union responded to that with a travel ban on the president and key officials. Belarus was now an outcast.
WITH THE ECONOMY isolated and private enterprise almost outlawed, Lukashenko has just two sources of cash. One is Russia. President Vladimir Putin, upset at seeing so many former Eastern European allies join the West, continues to supply Belarus with cheap oil and gas, and there are talks about a possible economic union.
The other source of money is weapons. Belarus has been accused by the US of earning $400 million (€328 million) by selling weapons to nations that other arms exporters won't touch, including Iran, Sudan, Syria and Saddam Hussein's Iraq.
In 2001 Lukashenko was re-elected as president and in 2004 he won a referendum allowing him to stand for a third term of office. Both votes were condemned by the West but supported by Moscow, as the rift between Russia and its former European partners widened.
Yet despite the support of cheap energy and arms receipts, Belarus remains in Europe's economic basement.
The lack of private initiative has condemned the citizens to live in the same drab towns and cities they inhabited in communist times.
This might not be so bad, except that their neighbours are beginning to prosper. The EU now borders Belarus to the west, with Poland, and to the north, through the Baltic states.
In 2004 Ukraine rebelled against its government of former communists in the Orange Revolution, and the Belarus opposition was galvanised. It organised its own revolution, named the Denim Revolution after the ubiquitous jeans its mostly young supporters wear.
But Lukashenko has given them little room to breathe. In the run-up to this presidential election the opposition press has been closed down, TV is almost closed to them and most of their rallies are stopped. Several top opposition figures have been beaten up or jailed in recent weeks. The opposition candidate, Alexander Milinkevich, remains free but has accused the government of massive violations of election law.
YET THERE IS another side to Lukashenko's idiosyncratic rule: among many Belarussians, particularly pensioners and those in the countryside, the president is, if not quite popular, regarded as the best available choice.
These people are worried by news on state television about the agitators at the gates, and are pleased that their wages and pensions, if not substantial, are at least being paid, in contrast to the chaos of the early 1990s.
Trade with Moscow, which is enjoying a booming economy thanks to high oil prices, is picking up, and more and more migrant workers are leaving for Russia.
The result of all this is to leave Lukashenko stuck in a rut. No amount of central planning can, it seems, realise his dream of creating a prosperous state run along communist lines.
Equally, with total control of the levers of power, and with cheap oil and gas to keep the economy ticking over, he is able to fend off challenges to his throne. The pond may be small and murky, but Lukashenko can look forward to a third term in office in which he will be the only big fish presiding there.
Who is he?
Alexander Lukashenko, 61-year-old president of Belarus.
Why is he in the news?
His suppression of opponents ahead of tomorrow's presidential election has seen the US brand him "Europe's last dictator".
Most appealing characteristic?
Willing to buck the trend and be one of the few world leaders still sporting a moustache.
Least appealing characteristic?
Tendency to beat up and arrest opponents.
Most likely to say?
"Keep the red flag flying high."
Least likely to say?
"I fancy a pair of those Levis."