Three states that will make Gore's or Bush's day

Every four years in US politics the two states that traditionally export American news fade into near oblivion

Every four years in US politics the two states that traditionally export American news fade into near oblivion. New York and California, the two places that are the centres of finance and entertainment, of cultural trends and controversy, rarely play a decisive role in the presidential election.

It is not that they are unimportant. On the contrary, these two states contribute a lion's share of electoral votes. However, they are not representative of the overall American electorate, and their leanings are usually already clear long before voting begins.

This year's election, expected to be the closest in 40 years, is no different. The attention has shifted to three places that may be less familiar. Nonetheless, from these the next president of the United States will be chosen:

Michigan - This is solid midwest American territory, with a stereotypical population. Macomb County gained fame in the 1980s as home of the Reagan Democrats, an important social phenomenon.

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Former actor and California governor Ronald Reagan was considered an arch-conservative, even a radical right-winger. But he reached out to traditional Democrats, arguing on a platform of less government and more personal social responsibility. His message was heard. The Republicans carried Michigan three times in the 1980s.

Some 84 per cent of Michigan voters are white. In the 1996 election, 40 per cent of voters were from union households, contrasting with 23 per cent of national voters. These are tough conservative voters and Republicans control the governor's seat, one US Senate seat, and both houses of the state legislature.

Mr Bill Clinton carried Michigan twice, first in 1992 with a 7point margin and then in 1996 with a 13-point margin. Mr Clinton's support came from the Democratic strongholds of Detroit, which has a large black population, and the cities of Flint and Bay City.

Mr Gore needs to win Michigan. He needs the votes of union and motor industry workers (in 1998, some 9.3 per cent of the state's gross national product was generated by the auto industry) and therein lies the challenge.

In his 1992 book about the environment, Earth in the Balance, Mr Gore said the current internal combustion engine is a "mortal threat to the security of every nation". This was not music to the ears of motor workers concerned about their jobs, and the Republicans have highlighted Mr Gore's statement during the campaign.

Much of what can be said about Michigan can also be said about Pennsylvania. The Republicans carried the state three times in the 1980s, and they currently control the governor's office and both US Senate seats, But President Clinton won Pennsylvania in 1992 and 1996.

Nearly 20 per cent of Pennsylvania voters in 1996 were over the age of 65. In several areas of the state, mostly the more rural regions and the suburbs outside Pittsburgh, voters can be very conservative on social issues. They may switch back and forth between parties, but they often vote for the candidate who is opposed to abortion, for example, regardless of party affiliation. Pennsylvania is also home to the Amish people, a Christian religious sect that rejects all modern conveniences including cars and televisions.

Mr Bush may find a willing audience for his message of "compassionate conservatism" in Pennsylvania. For his part, Mr Gore must receive a high voter turnout in traditional Democratic strongholds of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh if he is to counter Mr Bush's advantage in the rest of the state.

Politics in Florida is as hot and steamy as the weather. The demographic groups that comprise the population and the electorate are passionate and outspoken. While voter turnout in the rest of the US is expected to hover at around 50 per cent, some analysts are speculating that turnout in Miami-Dade county may reach 80 to 85 per cent.

Two of the most energised segments of the population here are Jewish voters and Cuban voters. Some 6 per cent of the electorate was Jewish in 1996, as opposed to 3 per cent nationally. And that group has been fired up by Mr Gore's historic selection of Mr Joseph Lieberman as his vice-presidential running mate. They are eager to prove that a Jew can reach the White House, and are expected to turn out in huge numbers.

On the other hand, the Cuban American community, which is mostly Republican and conservative, was equally fired up by the Elian Gonzalez affair. Mr George Bush used every opportunity to speak ill of the Cuban Americans' nemesis, President Fidel Castro, and Cuban voters have promised they will show their loyalty to Mr Bush.

The state voted Republican all three times in the 1980s and also in 1992. Without Mr Lieberman on the ticket, the state would have been be a certainty for Mr Bush; but now it is still a toss-up.

So that is the view from here. By tomorrow morning of course, all of the pundits' analyses and predictions will be revised. Could California and New York matter again?