Time has come for the last roll of the dice

There is a memorable phrase in one of Sean O'Faolain's short stories about a man "who hadn't got a spare sixpence of an idea …

There is a memorable phrase in one of Sean O'Faolain's short stories about a man "who hadn't got a spare sixpence of an idea to fumble for". Things have not come to that pass in the peace process just yet but time is running out and the participants are running out of ideas.

The current impasse recalls nothing so much as the desperation leading up to the Hillsborough Declaration of April 1st last year which followed a flurry of activity, all-night meetings, arm-twisting, huddles in corners and endless spinning to the media.

The present crisis has been spread out over a longer period and was much more predictable. Can anything save the institutions from suspension at this late stage?

It was pointed out yesterday that the deadline for passage of the legislation at Westminster could, in principle, be extended from 10.30 a.m. on Friday until 10 p.m., with consequent postponement of the suspension deadline. Not only would the process go down to the wire but the wire itself would be moved.

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Senior sources differed on the likelihood of such a manoeuvre: there would have to be a possible compromise on the horizon to make it worthwhile.

The fact that Mr Gerry Adams, Mr Martin McGuinness and Ms Bairbre de Brun flew to London yesterday showed at least a willingness to talk about ways through the impasse, but there was little public indication after the meeting with Mr Tony Blair that substantive progress had been made.

Mr Trimble told the Commons yesterday that words were not enough. "It is necessary to go beyond words," he said. The problem, as he is undoubtedly well aware, is that it will be difficult, if not impossible, to persuade the republicans to go beyond words.

There was speculation yesterday about a "formula" and considerable interest was aroused by the proposal in a Guardian editorial for a day of reconciliation, as previously suggested at Hillsborough. This would involve British demilitarisation, accompanied by decommissioning of weapons on the part of republican and loyalist paramilitaries, e.g., the removal of security installations from south Armagh could take place in parallel with a gesture from republicans and loyalists on weapons.

The original Hillsborough idea came from a senior official in Dublin's Department of Justice and had considerable attractions for the more politically-minded element on the republican side. It did not go down well with some unionists and, in the end, the paramilitary wing of republicanism gave it a firm "no".

The idea, based on establishing an equivalence between the weapons of the IRA and the security forces, came back into play yesterday and there were even suggestions of US interest in the plan, which may well have come up in conversation between the Taoiseach and Mr Clinton last night.

But it may all be too late. Even if republicans "bought into" the day of reconciliation, would it be acceptable to unionists?

One imagines, however, that the ceremonial aspects of an event signalling a new era in relations between the two communities, and, indeed, between Britain and Ireland, might have a certain appeal for New Labour, not to mention "New Sinn Fein".

By all accounts, the White House is watching events very closely. Mr Clinton is thought to be ready to do anything he can to save the process. While it may be considered fanciful to see him leaping on a plane to fly to Belfast between now and the ultimate decommissioning deadline on May 22nd, the "comeback kid" is likely to do all in his power to save one of his undisputed foreign policy successes. "There's probably one roll of the dice left," senior sources said last night.

The usual frantic behind-the-scenes activity is taking place, with reports of top Dublin officials visiting London to resolve the crisis.

The mood in the unionist camp was described as fatalistic. When republicans speak of a UUP game plan to undermine the institutions and bring about a return to direct rule they may well be overestimating the strategic capacity of contemporary unionism, according to sources close to the UUP leadership. Unionist ministers are enjoying their new jobs and would almost certainly wish to avoid suspension if a plausible alternative could be found.

The peace process was a nationalist invention and unionists were initially reluctant to participate in it but now it has drawn in just about everybody: even the Democratic Unionist Party has, with inevitable qualifications and disclaimers, taken up its ministries in the power-sharing administration and everybody has been working hard on behalf of the people of Northern Ireland.

Can the finest and most sophisticated political brains in the two governments and the parties come up with a scheme to get everyone over the hump? Further statements from Gen de Chastelain and the IRA may be on the way but they will have to contain enough to still the anxieties of the Ulster Unionist Council delegates when they assemble in Belfast on Saturday.

If suspension takes place, it will solve the immediate problem of preserving Mr Trimble politically but it will also create many new difficulties: Sinn Fein will have serious doubts about participating in the review and there are even question marks about how long Mr Adams will want to continue in his present role.

On the unionist side, there will be huge pressure to link the dropping of the Patten report with decommissioning as a further precondition for participation in government with Sinn Fein or even the SDLP. There could be, in James Connolly's phrase about Partition, a "carnival of reaction".

The plane is falling fast, and nobody knows where the parachutes are stored.