Time to take Patrick Hillery out to lunch

Drapier's first task this morning is to congratulate the person who is now, under our Constitution, the Third House of the Oireachtas…

Drapier's first task this morning is to congratulate the person who is now, under our Constitution, the Third House of the Oireachtas. Mary McAleese has won and won well. She has a hard act to follow but she has the character and the drive to be a good President, and maybe even warm the place up a little in the process.

It will be a different Presidency, of that I have no doubt. And it will not please all of us. Even though Mary Robinson had huge satisfaction ratings, it is now open season as far as she and her Presidency are concerned.

Revisionism is always with us, and this particular bout began in earnest with Eamon Dunphy's article in this month's Magil. Though, in fairness, Eamon Dunphy is not saying much more than he was saying a couple of years ago.

However, if Drapier is any judge, this Robinson revisionism is set to develop into a nice little cottage industry before too long. Drapier has no problems with this. It happens all the time.

READ MORE

Sean Lemass was the man who stood in de Valera's shadow, the man who "lacked charisma" and never got an overall majority. Yet, with each passing year, his stature grows and grows, as John Horgan's new magisterial study so clearly shows.

And when was there anyone, apart from Garret FitzGerald, to put in a serious good word for de Valera these past few years? History has its own strange ways.

But back to the Presidency. The McAleese Presidency, if Mary is true to herself, will be exciting and with just enough unpredictability to give it the occasional whiff of danger. She will find the odd land-mine, in Drapier's view more likely to be media-generated and mediastoked than put there by the politicians.

Mary McAleese will need good political advice from time to time. And if she is wise she will seek that advice widely rather than narrowly, and she could do worse than invite that good man, Patrick J. Hillery, out for an early lunch, and keep in contact with him thereafter. Drapier has to applaud all five candidates. Mary McAleese won, and won it her way.

Mary Banotti grew in stature and confidence as the campaign developed. She may well rue the fact that her nomination was delayed a month longer than she wanted, and she will be less than happy with John Bruton's intervention.

It is to Dana that Drapier owes an apology. Unlike Vincent Browne, Drapier does not have a radio slot where he can warble "all kinds of everything" in atonement. Nor, like Vincent Browne, did he bump into her in his local hostelry and get a nice wet kiss of reconciliation, but Dana was a star turn, confident, calm and true to herself.

For Adi Roche it was a nightmare. She is gutsy, brave and engaging. Drapier will leave the question of why she did so badly to others. Of all people, she must this morning be pondering just how cruel a trade politics can be.

As for Derek Nally, he fought a good fight but it was never really on.

What is the impact in here? Drapier can already hear advice in Bertie Ahern's ear to call the by-elections, and do so quickly to cash in on the popular mood. Drapier has no doubt Bertie Ahern will resist this advice.

There is no guarantee Mary McAleese's vote will transfer to Fianna Fail in the by-election and there are serious candidate problems in both Limerick and Dublin North (lack of good candidates, that is). Drapier reckons Bertie Ahern will leave well enough alone and allow the Budget benefits to sink in. So expect March or April.

Nor does Drapier see Labour rushing in to move the writ for Jim Kemmy's seat, thereby precipitating both contests. Labour has two ready-made candidates, Sean Ryan and Jan O'Sullivan, but after this week's drubbing, Drapier sees no great stomach for the bold stroke an early move would represent. Bold strokes are out of fashion in the Labour Party at present.

Which brings Drapier to the Labour Party and its troubles, about which so much is being written. Picking Adi Roche was a bold stroke. It could have worked, but it didn't, and as we all know success has many fathers, while failure is a lonely orphan.

Dick Spring and Fergus Finlay will now find themselves carrying the can for something that went badly wrong. How different it could have been is now of no consequence.

Why did it go wrong? The first reason was Adi Roche's premature disclosure of her candidacy. That was the first real catalyst of the campaign and it galvanised Fianna Fail into ditching Albert Reynolds.

There was no conspiracy. Drapier had been saying since July that Albert Reynolds would have great difficulty in getting the Fianna Fail nomination, and when backbenchers saw Adi Roche they took fright, used their heads and voted for Mary McAleese. It was an act of self-interest, and it was as simple as that.

The second reason Adi Roche failed was because the public did not see her as presidential. It's tough, but it's the only explanation that cuts to the heart of the matter.

Drapier does not think Dick Spring is seriously hurt by what has happened.Spring is a couple of notches above all others in the Labour Party. He knows when to be quiet and when to regroup. He will not be challenged and he will do what he has to do, in his own way. It's not his style to quit and he won't be pushed.

The Labour Party has much to think about after this election, and the one political certainty which has emerged from the result is that Bertie Ahern's Government has been secured in power at least for the foreseeable future. The independents will read the figures and act accordingly, and in the process provide a breathing space for all of us.

John Bruton is also a leader who needs plenty of time for calm reflection. His interventions in the campaign were minimal, but were enough, and done in such a way as to provide the second real catalyst of this campaign.

There are many in Fine Gael angry with John Bruton this morning, maybe unfairly, but when was politics ever fair? ail and one thing that Bruton has shown very definitely over the past number of years is that he is prepared to learn and to relearn, and to act accordingly. So after all the champagne and all the excitement, it's back to bread and butter next week. It would be nice to think the atmosphere will improve, but Drapier wouldn't necessarily bet on it.