THE CONSERVATIVE local election campaign drew to an unhappy close yesterday, with Mr Michael Heseltine insisting he would not be replacing Mr John Major after today's expected defeats.
At the same time Mr John Redwood, the former Welsh Secretary, announced he would not be challenging the Prime Minister for the Tory leadership.
As the party braced itself for heavy losses in today's polls, Mr Michael Portillo, the Defence Secretary, also dismissed the renewed speculation about Mr Major's survival as "absurd".
The Prime Minister is clearly determined to stay in office, and remains convinced he is the only person who can maintain a semblance of unity in a party riven with divisions over Europe. And the 1922 Committee has already changed the party rules to rule out the possibility of a backbench challenge this autumn. But fresh waves of anxiety will sweep the backbenches if the pattern of the past two years is sustained, and today's results produce no firm evidence of a recovery in the party's electoral fortunes.
Heavy losses are inevitable, since the Conservatives are today defending seats won in the immediate aftermath of the 1992 general election success.
The Tories are defending 1,166 seats and experts predict they stand to lose at least half of them. There are no elections today in Scotland, Wales or London.
In time humoured fashion, Conservative and Labour "spin doctors" have been deliberately playing down their expectations. Senior Conservatives, hoping to minimise the potential damage, have gone in the other direction, talking up the likely scale of the losses.
But local government experts, Mr Colin Rallings and Mr Michael Thrasher, have produced, a ready reckoner by which the results should be assessed.
If the Tory losses were 350 or less, the party could justifiably claim a disparity between the opinion polls and its support in the country. But that outcome is considered unlikely. Losses contained at 500 would show an improvement on last year, but still leave the Conservative vote around 10 points adrift of Labour's. Beyond 500 losses and the Tories should despair.
An examination of 60,000 votes cast in 30 by elections this year gives the Conservatives the national equivalent of just 26 per cent.
If that is borne out by today's results, the party would have recovered just one percentage point in the past year. With only a year at most to the general election, such a recovery rate would appear to put a fifth term beyond its reach. According to Rallings and Thrasher, losses edging toward 700 would point to possible annihilation come the general election.
Just four of the 150 authorities holding elections today are under Conservative management swings and widespread voting would be required for lose Broxborne and Huntshire, in Mr Major's own constituency.
But both could be lost if year's results were repeated. Macclesfield, the last Tory foothold in the North, is most at risk, the loss of more than one seat a Runnymede would see it control there.
In the search for gains of 400 more, Labour will be hoping for symbolic victory at Basildon - where "Essex man" topped Major's 1992 victory by giving the Tories a clean sweep. Basildon's disillusionment has swift and brutal.
Mr Heseltine yesterday insisted the bulk of the Conservative rank and file approves the broad thrust of government policy. We shall see if they're singing the same tune tomorrow morning.