BRITAIN:Many voters are questioning the PM's future - and by extension that of his MPs, writes Frank Millar
CONSERVATIVE LEADER David Cameron was back in Crewe and Nantwich yesterday celebrating a remarkable victory. He had asked voters to "send a message" to prime minister Gordon Brown and they had obliged, and then some.
On a swing of 17.6 per cent the successful Tory candidate Edward Timpson converted the late Gwyneth Dunwoody's 7,078 advantage into a 7,860 majority of his own. On a 58.2 per cent turnout, moreover - barely two points down on the general election - this could not be lightly dismissed as a mid-term protest. Labour's vote collapsed and the Liberal Democrats were squeezed as people who don't usually vote joined once-loyal Labour supporters in a dramatic embrace of the Cameron Conservative brand.
So is this, as Mr Cameron proclaimed, "the end of New Labour"? Having observed Labour contrive to appear ridiculous and racist at the same time, many might think so.
Certainly, veteran left-wing MP Diane Abbott could only cheerily acknowledge that the Tony Blair/Gordon Brown/Peter Mandelson construct was meant to have left behind the sort of "class warfare" that characterised the Labour effort. Lessons can of course be learned from ill-judged campaigns. And the real question on everyone's lips is whether Crewe might actually spell curtains for the troubled Brown?
This was a famous Tory win, the party's first byelection gain from Labour in 30 years. Yet commentators can recall bigger swings against incumbent prime ministers who then went on to win re-election.
It is also true that anything might happen on the road to a general election two years from now. However, there is an important caveat to be entered here: As noted on these pages before, if Brown feels obliged to delay until the summer of 2010, that in itself will be a measure of his continuing difficulty.
We all know the "new" prime minister thought to seek his own mandate in a snap election last autumn. Having had his mind changed by the opinion polls, most insiders agreed his preferred date would be May or June of next year. Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, both triple election winners, established that confident defending prime ministers choose to go at the end of the fourth year. Those forced into the final year like Jim Callaghan in 1979 and John Major in 1997 can find themselves at the mercy of events and their options much reduced.
Brown's attitude to the Crewe and Nantwich setback was established in response to Labour's abysmal performance in the local and London elections earlier this month. He tried again yesterday to reassure nervous Labour MPs that the government is enduring difficulties as a result of the global economic downturn and that he is the man of experience to see the country through challenging times.
On the doorsteps in this byelection those MPs clearly heard the voters' concerns about rising fuel and food bills, high council taxes, stealth taxes, the abolition of the 10p starter tax, inflationary pressures, below-inflation pay settlements, rising mortgage bills, the risks of negative equity and fears of communal tensions should the downturn see a sharp spike in unemployment.
They also heard many voters question Brown's future employment prospects. And as they consider their own - Crewe was only the 165th seat on the Tory target list - the question exercising those MPs this weekend is what, if anything, can be done to avoid a possible general election defeat?
One thing seems certain: Brown will not walk away from the position he coveted for so long. So, will any serving or former cabinet ministers find the courage they so notably lacked a year ago when Tony Blair's tormentor was elected unopposed? Some ultra-Blairites are privately hoping the self-interest of MPs will see them find a way round party rules that make a challenge difficult. While conceding some might be "bonkers enough" to try, Brown loyalists on the other hand appear convinced the overwhelming majority simply don't have the appetite for a bloodletting. And, they ask, which of the Ed Balls/David Milliband "next generation" would want to inherit in those circumstances? The natural instinct of a political party will be to postpone the evil day.
It is also questionable if the country would take kindly to the installation of a second "unelected" prime minister. After much soul-searching, then, Labour may conclude it is stuck with the choice made less than a year ago.
Its current agony will be the knowledge that Cameron is probably counting on it.