It is possible that the Government's €34 billion transport plan will be completed on time and to budget. It won't happen, of course, but four days after its launch it's - just about, mind - still within the bounds of possibility. Then again, it's possible the next Eircom League champions will win the European Cup in 2007, but you'd hardly be too cautious if you weren't to put your house on it, writes Eddie Holt
It was Bismarck, chancellor of Germany in the later 19th century, who described politics as "the art of the possible". It's not really an art of any kind, but bullies like Bismarck like to aggrandise their generally coercive work. Politics is always about power and propaganda and there was an artlessness to the Government's transport plan attempt to begin buying the next general election.
Look at the most-used photograph at the launch of the big plan. Left to right it shows Minister for Transport Martin Cullen, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, Tánaiste Mary Harney and Minister for Finance Brian Cowen. All four are holding a large map of Ireland titled "National Roads Network 2015". The map has red, blue, green and yellow roads criss-crossing the 26-county State.
It's hard to imagine that anybody other than utterly devout or mindless Fianna Fáil and Progressive Democrat apparatchiks could believe the plan. If history and common sense teach prudence, there is absolutely no reason to believe it. Sure, some of it will happen but the questions are "how much?", "which bits?" and "what excuses will be used to justify falling short of promises?".
How much would be considered acceptable? Does the plan need to be 95 per cent completed? 80 per cent? 50 per cent? 40 per cent or less? There is, for instance, a great long blue road running from Letterkenny to Waterford. En route it links Donegal, Sligo, Galway, Ennis, Limerick and Cork. This road is to be known as the Atlantic Highway. Who believes this will be built by 2015? Furthermore, it's not to be built to motorway standard. Indeed, parts of it are not even to be a dual carriageway. Apparently, it will be a 2+1 road (three lanes in total for both directions with alternating passing lanes). Yet on the launch map, there it is - a huge "L" shape - at least equal in prominence to the red motorways and dual carriageways that gravitate towards Dublin.
This plan is mostly about Dublin because that's the place with the most votes and money. The red, blue, green and purple lines of the "Greater Dublin Area Rail Network" suggest a mini-London Underground. But London has 274 stations on its network, about half of which are really under the ground. Dublin, in contrast, has not one underground station.
Is it good enough to have a flashy launch with flashy plans and flashy maps in order to try to win power again? Is it not insulting to the electorate? Just because the Government can argue that the Opposition would likely behave in a similar fashion doesn't mean people shouldn't feel insulted. There's spin and there's spin, but the video inserts of Metro and Luas were ultimately depressing.
They were depressing because it was clear the Government was using them to convince voters of their plan. The idea was, quite reasonably, predicated on the belief that people will believe their eyes more than their ears. If voters can see what's envisaged they are more likely to be convinced by it. The problem is that the disappointment is all the more profound when the plans turn to dust.
In that sense, it's little wonder that fewer and fewer people are voting in elections. They know the propaganda is tiresome and increasingly - like the Metro and Luas videos - invasive. They are shown the future and when the future, like those scenes of vacuously happy and elegant people on developers' billboards, doesn't materialise as promised, there is inevitable depression.
Nonetheless, despite its artlessness, the Government's propaganda could work. It's unlikely to, but the Opposition still requires a stronger leader - either more plausible, more charismatic or more dynamic - than Enda Kenny. He has improved since he first became leader of Fine Gael but he still lacks the required pugnacity - the downright toughness - expected of a wannabe taoiseach.
If Kenny does acquire the requisite hardiness, the Government should be in difficulties. It's been in power too long and too many of its ministers have become insufferably arrogant. No doubt the same would happen to Opposition politicians after so much power but that, at present, is insufficient reason to continue with the current crop.
Mind you, the scale, garishness and belatedness of this week's transport plan launch suggest that the Government realises it has got a battle ahead. The football team has not qualified for next year's World Cup finals in Germany so an early summer feelgood mood from that will be denied to voters. Expect much to be made of maturing SSIA accounts.
As an opening volley for the next general election, the Government's transport plan already appears to have backfired. There have been too many promises already for the public to be taken for yet another ride.