Trimble in dire straits after telling courtroom blow

Analysis : The UUP leader can't take much more of this and remain standing, writes Dan Keenan.

Analysis: The UUP leader can't take much more of this and remain standing, writes Dan Keenan.

It doesn't seem to matter how many times Mr David Trimble holds on to a majority at the Ulster Unionist Council, his opponents keep coming back at him.

The party, so good at fighting its internal battles behind closed doors, has now resorted to conducting its all-out civil war before a judge and on the steps of the courthouse in the gaze of the cameras. This is new and dangerous territory for the party.

Mr Trimble, flushed with relief at his narrow victory at the last Ulster Unionist Council in June likened the experience to going 10 rounds with a heavyweight boxer.

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Punch-drunk and bloodied he may be, and it seems that the blow delivered yesterday by Mr Justice Girvan could be especially telling.

Some unionists contacted yesterday by The Irish Times made no bones about the seriousness of the situation. The timing could not have been worse, said one. Tonight Mr Trimble faces a vote of no confidence at his own constituency association in Upper Bann.

He will win, of course - handsomely it is predicted. But the indignity of having to speak in your own defence before party members when confidence is more normally taken as read outlines the weakness in the Trimble leadership.

An Assembly member, a Trimble supporter, recognised the damage that is being done and made no effort to hide talk of an interim leader while the search commences for unity under a figure who can unite the two camps under the UUP banner. The trouble is no-one really seems to know how to get to that point.

Trimble supporters are putting a brave face on the judge's decision. Two former ministers say the decision to discipline the Donaldson Three remains valid - the judge didn't criticise that. They also say that if a series of Ulster Unionist Council meetings can't resolve disputes, neither can a court appearance.

The Donaldson camp insists this dispute is founded on policy differences. Mr Donaldson was sceptical of the Belfast Agreement and has been since the night his leader nodded his assent at Stormont in 1998. A swift examination of the Donaldson political pedigree throws up a few clues as to what makes him tick. As a young activist in his early twenties Mr Donaldson was a key worker for the late South Down MP, Mr Enoch Powell.

To suggest that Mr Powell would have rubbished the Good Friday deal and its spin-off - the Joint Statement - would be an understatement.

Mr Donaldson remains close to Mr Trimble's predecessor, Lord Molyneaux. It was no accident that the same peer took centre stage at the press conference when Messrs Donaldson, Smyth and Burnside resigned the party whip.

Party insiders now make no bones about the seriousness of the UUP meltdown and the dire prospects for the Trimble leadership. "There is nothing left to spin," said one with shoulder-shrugging honesty.

That said, only a fool should write off Mr Trimble. One of his colleagues likened him to Harry Houdini.

Political escapologist he may be, but it should be remembered that what finished Houdini was an unexpected blow to the abdomen.

It is just possible that the High Court delivered that punch yesterday.