FARMING IN Ireland faces an uncertain future with about 40 per cent of people working in the sector due to retire in the next decade, a new report says.
The Foresightreport, compiled by the agriculture and food development authority Teagasc, cited a continuing trend towards two contrasting types of farm in Ireland: large-scale, full-time farms and small-scale, part-time ones.
It said the extent of part-time farming would depend on the willingness of offspring of farmers to continue to hold at least one other job, as well as the availability of additional local employment.
It predicted that land availability will remain tight and, unless new policies could facilitate the entry of new farmers, the structure of the farming population was unlikely to change significantly between now and 2030. "Approximately 40 per cent of farmers will retire in the next 10 years and almost all farms will change hands at least once by 2030," the report said.
Launched to coincide with the 50th anniversary of the foundation of An Foras Taluntais, the forerunner of Teagasc, the report says Ireland is blessed with abundant resources to produce food, bioenergy and other bio-products.
However, it predicts that climate change could bring new pests and disease to our shores. It said Bluetongue disease, an insect-borne disease, has already spread here from Britain, due in part to milder winters.
On greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), it said that reducing agricuture's emissions must be considered in the context of a growing world population and increased demand for food. It said the drive to substitute fossil fuels with renewable biofuels, prompted by concerns about fossil-based energy supplies and climate change, had seen food crops increasingly replaced by energy crops, exacerbating food security concerns.
"Some question a GHG policy that would reduce Irish agricultural activity at a time of increased demand for food and renewable energy sources," it said.
It added that there were complex trade-offs to consider, including the fact that effective solutions to climate change may require integrated, multisectoral approaches based on new sources of energy and industrial feedstock and new mechanisms for balancing an immediate need for food and energy with the long-term goal of sustainability.
Dealing with demographic changes, it said that new infrastuructural planning under the NDP should increase connectivity with the regions, making rural areas a more attractive places to live and work.
"But without accompanying economic development, there will be no real community development and instead we will see a growth in commuting. Decisions on where to locate public services will also affect the quality of life in rural areas and already there is public concern about the concentration of services, especially healthcare, required to achieve economies of scale," it said.