IRAQ: Experts beginning their analysis of Iraq's declaration document will have two key tasks. The first is to search for any new information about what happened to Iraqi weapons that could not be found during previous inspections.
The second is to find out Iraq's explanation of various new developments since the inspectors left in 1998, which have been highlighted by US and British intelligence.
Undiscovered weapons
According to Unscom reports, the inspections before 1998 failed to account for:
Up to 360 tonnes of bulk chemical warfare agent, including 1.5 tonnes of VX nerve agent.
Up to 3,000 tonnes of precursor chemicals, including 300 tonnes specifically related to the production of VX.
Growth media for biological agents, enough to produce more than three times the 8,500 litres of anthrax spores Iraq admits to having manufactured;
More than 30,000 special munitions for delivering chemical and biological agents.
There is no doubt that Iraq once had these weapons, since it has admitted possessing them. The question is what happened to them. During previous inspections Iraq claimed it had already destroyed them. The inspectors found no evidence of their destruction and made clear that they did not believe Iraq's explanation.
New developments
US and British intelligence have highlighted developments since 1998 at several sites previously associated with Iraq's chemical warfare programme. The experts will want to compare what Iraq says about these in its declaration with what is already known from other sources. The British government's dossier on Iraq, published in September, focused on the chlorine and phenol plant at Fallujah 2, near Habbaniyah, which has been rebuilt since 1998.
Chlorine and phenol have civilian uses but are also precursors for the production of chemical weapons. The dossier also focused on newly built facilities, including the Ibn Sina Company at Tarmiyah, which is a chemical research centre, and repairs to the al-Qa'qa' chemical complex damaged in the 1991 Gulf War.
"Of particular concern are elements of the phosgene production plant at al-Qa'qa'," the report said.
Another concern was Project Baiji, at al-Sharqat in north-western Iraq. This former uranium enrichment facility was damaged during the 1991 Gulf War and later rendered harmless by inspectors.
It has been partly rebuilt as a chemical production complex and, according to the British government, "intelligence reports indicate that it will produce nitric acid which can be used in explosives, missile fuel and in the purification of uranium".
Also reported was the rebuilding of the castor oil production plant at Fallujah, damaged by American-British bombing in 1998. Residue from castor beans can be used to make the biological agent, ricin.
And also causing concern was the expanded storage capacity in the Amariyah Sera and Vaccine Plant at Abu Ghraib. Unscom established that before the 1991 Gulf War this facility was used to store biological agents and seed stocks, and to conduct genetic research associated with biological warfare.
The al-Dawrah foot-and-mouth disease vaccine institute was also said by the British report to be worrying. This was involved in biological agent production and research before 1991. It was one of the first sites to be re-checked when inspectors arrived in Iraq last month, though there is no indication yet whether they found anything significant.
Timeline
December 7th: A day ahead of schedule, Iraq hands over 12,000 pages of documentation in response to UN demands for a full declaration of all weapons of mass destruction and their components. It also offers an apology of sorts to Kuwait.
December 8th: Inspectors fly the documentation from Baghdad to Cyprus, where the pages are split into two batches. Part is flown to Frankfurt and then to New York, HQ of Unmovic. The rest goes to Vienna, HQ of the international atomic energy agency. Thirty-five more inspectors arrive as colleagues conduct a search at a geological research facility centre at Fallujah, near Baghdad.
December 9th: The inspectors will open the documents and begin sifting through them to see what is new.
December 10th: Mr Hans Blix is due to meet the UN security council to tell it how much of the documentation is new. More inspectors are to arrive, bringing the total in Iraq to 70. Next week Mr Blix is hoping to be able to return to the security council to provide an initial assessment of the documentation.
January 26th: Sixty days from the start of their work, inspectors have to report to the security council and offer a plan for continuing inspections.
If the conclusion was that Iraq was guilty of a material breach of the UN resolution, the security council would meet to discuss war. - Guardian Service