ANALYSIS:Politics and political alliances have changed dramatically since the last election in 2004, writes DAN KEENAN
THE WESTMINSTER election will use the “first past the post” voting system in contrast to the proportional representation used in all other Northern elections.
On polling day, May 6th, voters must “plump” for a single candidate and there is no scope to transfer to other candidates.
The parties have changed dramatically since the last Westminster election in 2005, with the DUP now in government with Sinn Féin, the Ulster Unionists in a pact with British Conservatives and the anti-powersharing Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) posing a challenge to DUP domination in key unionist seats.
The election is being contested as an Independent by Lady Sylvia Hermon in her North Down constituency following her exit from the UUP.
Two former television journalists have also joined the list of candidates, with Mike Nesbitt fighting Iris Robinson’s former seat in Strangford for the Ulster Unionists and his former UTV colleague Fearghal McKinney contesting Fermanagh South Tyrone for the SDLP.
Party leaders Sir Reg Empey (UUP), Peter Robinson (DUP), Margaret Ritchie (SDLP) and Jim Allister (TUV) will lead their candidates into a Westminster election for the first time and the outcome could prove decisive in their political careers.
For all of them the political stakes are particularly high. For Sir Reg, the Tory link-up must produce results, especially with the loss of his one and only MP, Lady Sylvia Hermon, over the issue last week. Peter Robinson, as leader of a group of nine MPs, cannot afford to lose seats either to the Ulster Unionists or to the TUV which polled well in last summer’s European election.
Mr Allister, who bitterly resigned from the DUP over powersharing with Sinn Féin, is fighting to win the DUP heartland of North Antrim, held by Ian Paisley snr since 1970.
Ms Ritchie, elected SDLP leader in February, must retain South Down after the retirement of Eddie McGrady, who first won it in 1987, while the party would also be damaged were it to lose its grip on South Belfast, dramatically gained by Alasdair McDonnell in 2005.
Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams seems safe in West Belfast as does Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness in Mid Ulster. Pat Doherty in West Tyrone and Conor Murphy in Newry and Armagh are also well placed. Michelle Gildernew faces a challenge in Fermanagh South Tyrone but starts as favourite.
Poll results in Sinn Féin seats will be scrutinised to see how, if at all, the party’s lead within nationalism has been challenged.