Uncertain outcome of Belgrade election gives new hope to Serbs who co-operate with NATO

Through the smoke of incense, we could just make out the frescoes of the medieval King Milutin and his child bride Simonida on…

Through the smoke of incense, we could just make out the frescoes of the medieval King Milutin and his child bride Simonida on either side of the transept. By the light of flickering candles, the Serb Orthodox nuns of Gracanica were chanting evening prayers.

The French military had brought us to Kosovo to show us 21st century European defence policy in the making. Instead, we found ourselves immersed in the 700 year-old conflict between Serbs and Albanians.

The NATO force Kfor has 45,000 troops in this province of fewer than two million people, but it could not prevent the "ethnic cleansing" of the Serbs by Albanians, the rise of the Albanian Mafia, widespread gun and drug-running and enforced prostitution. There are still five murders a week, but Kfor boasts they are "criminal" rather than "ethnic".

By meeting us in the monastery, in a room of polished wood and gold icons, the Serb leaders conveyed a message: their civilisation has ancient roots in Kosovo and the Europeans must protect it.

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These are the "good Serbs", opponents of President Slobodan Milosevic whom the West wants to encourage. But the Kosovo Serbs' treatment of Albanians was so savage that few in the West listen now that they are the victims.

The presidential election in Belgrade and its uncertain outcome have given new hope to the Serbs who co-operate with NATO and the UN in Kosovo. If Mr Milosevic is replaced by a democratically elected Vojislav Kostunica, they believe there will be no justification for granting independence to Kosovo, which remains a Serb province in name only.

"Now we have a president who can fight for our country's sovereignty in New York, Washington and Brussels," Dr Rada Trajkovic, the Serb representative in Kosovo's interim administration, says. "The Serbs must not accept a second round [of presidential elections next Sunday] because it is obvious that Mr Kostunica is the winner."

She admits that a majority of Serbs in Kosovo voted for Mr Milosevic, but attributes this to fear and self-interest.

Although the Serbs will not participate, Dr Trajkovic also hopes that the October 28th Kosovo municipal elections will redistribute power among Albanians. The main contenders are Ibrahim Rugova's Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) and Hashim Thaci's Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK). Mr Thaci led the (in theory) defunct Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA).

Albanian candidates have signed promises to respect the results of the October 28th poll, but tension runs high between the LDK and PDK, between the historic leader Mr Rugova and the hot-blooded Mr Thaci.

Their competition is also a symptom of Franco-American rivalry in the Balkans. Like Dr Trajkovic, France would like to see the Paris-educated linguist Mr Rugova win. Dr Bernard Kouchner, the UN administrator for the province, cites a local study indicating Mr Rugova will receive 37 per cent of the vote, Mr Thaci at most 15 per cent.

Mr Rugova advocates better treatment for the 100,000 Serbs holed up in a half dozen enclaves. But if Dr Trajkovic believes he will discuss Kosovo's status with a new president in Belgrade, she is mistaken. All Albanian leaders demand "national" elections in Kosovo after the municipal poll. And all demand full independence from Serbia.

During last year's NATO bombardment, Mr Milosevic forced Mr Rugova to shake hands with him on Serb television. "I and my family were hostages," Mr Rugova says now. "I have no reaction [to Mr Milosevic's defeat]," he adds coldly. "It doesn't interest me. Every possible arrangement between Kosovo and Serbia has been tried and failed". Although Mr Rugova says he "support(s) the democratic process in Serbia", he wants Serbia and Kosovo to take part in Europe "each in his own house".

But won't Mr Rugova - and Kosovo - need protection for a very long time? The Albanian leader's response is the fulfilment of every Serb conspiracy theory. "My position is that NATO should stay here forever.

"We are asking for integration into NATO. Kfor will protect not only my government, but the governments that follow. Their presence is vital for the security of Kosovo and of the region."