Understanding centre-right's resounding victory

For the non-Italian, one question and only one asks itself in relation to the resounding Italian general election victory of …

For the non-Italian, one question and only one asks itself in relation to the resounding Italian general election victory of media tycoon and centre-right leader Mr Silvio Berlusconi: how on earth can the electorate of one of the world's largest developed democracies vote to have itself governed by a millionaire businessman with a controversial judicial record?

The charisma of Mr Berlusconi; the fiscal austerity of five years of centre-left government; the effectiveness of Mr Berlusconi's election campaign and the corresponding ineffectiveness of that of the left; the heavy-handed and probably much-resented interference of foreign media commentators critical of Mr Berlusconi, and most critically, the reluctance of the centre-left to tackle Mr Berlusconi while in office.

All these offer a partial explanation for the centre-right success.

Yet, when one looks at the detail of the vote, one senses cynicism and disaffection. Take the Milan 1 senate constituency, where, among the candidates were former European Commissioner Ms Emma Bonino of the Radical Party and Mr Berlusconi's friend and close associate, Mr Marcello Dell'Utri of Forza Italia.

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Ms Bonino was not only much admired during her period as European Commissioner but she is also someone with a lengthy record in public life, having been prominent in the campaigns to have both divorce and abortion legalised in Italy in the 1970s and 1980s.

Mr Dell'Utri, on the other hand, served Mr Berlusconi well in the development of his $14 billion Fininvest Group, helping to build up the Publitalia advertising arm. Mr Dell'Utri is under investigation in Palermo on charges of mafia association.

When it came to Sunday's vote, however, Ms Bonino polled only 9.42 per cent of the vote while Mr Dell'Utri won the seat with 46.18 per cent. Even if Ms Bonino primarily lost out because of the "non-aligned" independent status of the Radical Party, such a strong proDell'Utri vote certainly strikes of cynicism.

Where does the cynicism come from? For part of the answer, you have to go back to October 1998 and the fall of the centre-left government, then led by current European Commission President Romano Prodi. On that occasion, Mr Prodi, the electorate's choice in his 1996 general election victory as head of the centre-left Olive coalition, was unseated not by the centre-right but rather by the withdrawal of the parliamentary support of hardline Marxist "Rifondazione Communista".

At first glance, that appeared to be the logical end to an always difficult relationship. In reality, Mr Prodi was beaten, by just one vote, with the connivance of the centre-left's biggest element, the former Communist Democratic Left (DS). In realpolitik terms, the DS decided Mr Prodi had served his purpose - seeing Italy into the start-up of the euro - and he could be dispensed with.

The voting itself developed into a shameful shambles, with people forced to wait hours.