Today's meeting of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions disputes committee will not solve the train drivers' strike. At best, it might see the beginning of a process to resolve it; at worst, it could see the start of the long slide into an industrial free-forall which many commentators have been predicting for the past couple of years.
The committee normally deals with less than a dozen "poaching" rows between unions each year. Most are settled relatively amicably, but this time the stakes are much higher.
If the ATGWU wins the right to represent more than 100 members of the Irish Locomotive Drivers' Association (ILDA), it will be establishing a base from which to expand elsewhere in the company. SIPTU is adamantly opposed to that happening. It is less than a year since the State's largest union lost more than 1,000 Aer Lingus cabin crew to IMPACT. Originally, IMPACT had, with SIPTU's agreement, recruited pilots and management grades at Dublin Airport. By the time SIPTU woke up to the danger of losing cabin crew, it was too late.
Ironically, SIPTU has developed quite good relations in recent years with the National Bus and Railworkers' Union, the other union representing train drivers, which began as a breakaway from the old Irish Transport and General Workers' Union. The NBRU is not affiliated to ICTU, but it can rely on SIPTU to represent its interests at today's hearing.
The strategy of the ATGWU is harder to fathom. Its Irish secretary, Mr Mick O'Reilly, has consistently argued that he is simply facilitating a small group of workers who are alienated from their former unions.
However, he also knows that in doing so, he is not only alienating all three organisations but the small group of existing ATGWU members in the company. The ATGWU's 80 bodymakers are deeply unhappy with the ILDA connection.
They were not balloted on the current dispute and, whether by accident or design, there were no ATGWU pickets at Inchicore yesterday when they reported for work. This created the unusual situation where many SIPTU and NBRU train drivers decided not to pass ATGWU pickets, but the ATGWU's own members were able to work normally.
There is still a distinct possibility that the body-makers will leave the ATGWU if they have to share membership with the ILDA drivers.
Mr O'Reilly has one strong card in his favour. This is the fact that both the High Court and the Supreme Court have ruled that ILDA train drivers have left their former unions. On this basis he can argue that, far from "poaching" members, he is reclaiming them for the wider trade union movement.
However, rule 47 of ICTU states clearly that an affiliate should not recruit members - or ex-members - of other unions without prior consultation with it. It looked like such a process might take place, albeit belatedly, last Wednesday. ICTU informed Iarnrod Eireann then that a formula had been reached which would allow seven ILDA drivers on disciplinary charges to be represented by their former general secretary, Mr Brendan Ogle, while ICTU's own general secretary, Mr Peter Cassells, chaired peace talks between the ATGWU and SIPTU.
However, the ATGWU also requested that the disciplinary proceedings be rolled back, that time off be given to ILDA members to attend a union meeting and that compensation for lost earnings be paid to two suspended drivers.
Not surprisingly, the company pulled back from de facto recognition of the ATGWU's ILDA branch, talks broke down and the ATGWU went ahead with its strike.
It is unlikely that the ATGWU will win the right to represent ILDA members today. In that event, Mr O'Reilly must decide between ICTU and his new ILDA members. As an often vehement opponent of social partnership, he may prefer to be outside the process. In the current climate, he may feel there are plenty of discontented workers in other unions to recruit.