Uphill struggle for all parties in their bid to engage voters

The months of planning are over

The months of planning are over. Now, the next three weeks will decide the fate of the country's politicians, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Reporter

In the 1997 general election campaign, Fianna Fáil leader Mr Bertie Ahern enjoyed summer sunshine, a warm welcome on the streets, and, just as importantly, the attentions of RTÉ's Charlie Bird.

This time around, he hopes for both the sunshine and the warm welcome. But he will have to share Charlie Bird. Campaign planning has been the order of the day for all, including those in Government, ever since Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats joined forces five years ago.

"This could have happened at any time since. I remember people asking me in 1997, 'Do you think that they will get to Christmas?'" said Labour national organiser Mr Pat Magner.

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In the main, Fianna Fáil's strategy is simple. Keep Bertie moving, shaking hands, answering questions only on the run and keep away from head-to-head debates with Fine Gael leader Mr Michael Noonan for as long as possible.

The strategy makes sense. Fianna Fáil has nothing to gain from studio confrontations.

Noonan, on the other hand, desperately needs to land early punches to create momentum - known in the US as "The Big Mo".

Fianna Fáil's other strategy is reflected in the party's nationwide €300,000 "Lots Done, More To Do" poster campaign erected before the clock started to tick on campaign spending. In other words: "If it ain't broke don't fix it." Party strategists have been struck by research which shows that the State's under-30s are profoundly conservative, often self-centred.

In line with changes introduced by the Electoral Act, Fianna Fáil at national and local level will spend approximately €3.4 million during the campaign - half of which is coming from the taxpayer, and the rest from willing donors.

In 1997, the party received a nine-seat bonus after it dropped its aversion to looking for No 2 and No 3 preference votes. This time around, canvassers accept the changed philosophy makes sense.

For a brief period, the words "single party majority" were heard from the lips of a few in Fianna Fáil, who happily leaked private opinion polls that "proved" the tide was behind the Soldiers of Destiny.

The words were rapidly erased from the Fianna Fáil lexicon, on the orders of the ever-cautious Mr Ahern.

Instead, Fianna Fáil general secretary Mr Martin Mackin and countless others now insist a majority is "absolutely" not on.

Even if it were a possibility, talk about it would be enough to kill it stone dead. Despite seven years of soft-focus Bertie, some voters remain suspicious about the prospect of letting the party loose on its own.

If Fianna Fáil prefers to dance Ali-like around the political ring, Fine Gael must come out fighting. Since opening expectations are so low, it could curiously take little to ignite the party's campaign.

Unlike the Taoiseach, who will return to Dublin nightly, Mr Noonan will spend his time on board his campaign bus - à la the British Conservative Party leader, Mr William Hague, last year - as he tours the 42 constituencies. He has his work cut out. Defeat in May will leave Mr Noonan fighting for his political life inside Fine Gael in June.

Buffeted by the seemingly endless list of private Fianna Fáil polls - often taken as undeniable fact by provincial papers, local radio stations and some national papers - his grassroots are demoralised.

"By nature, Fine Gael people are inclined to become depressed and believe everything they hear," grumbled one party figure. "However, I still believe that it will come down to a handful of seats."

During the campaign, Fine Gael will again try to hammer home its promise to offer Ireland "the best public services in Europe", even though there are gaps in its funding arithmetic.

The message, along with others on the traffic situation, will be driven home through renewed postering and newspaper advertising. In all, Fine Gael will spend €2.3 million.

"People will pay more attention when the election is called," said Fine Gael's director of organisation, Mr Terry Murphy.

Crime also offers prospects. Following the assassination of Veronica Guerin in 1996, the Rainbow had not recovered its balance on the subject, in the public's eye, by the time it went to the polls in 1997.

This time around, the concerns are different. The threat posed by organised crime barons has receded, but parents' fears that their sons will not get home at night are rising daily.

Labour is gambling on voters' maturity. It has adopted a risky strategy of outlining its economic plans in detail: €16 billion worth of borrowing for capital spending, extra employers' PRSI contributions and cuts in contributions to the National Pensions Fund.

"It is a richer nation today than it has ever been. We are saying to people: 'Let's remortgage to pay for a new extension - and for a lot less than we did the first time'," said Labour leader Mr Ruairí Quinn.

So far, Labour has grumbled about Fianna Fáil's pre-election electioneering: "There are so many posters of Bertie Ahern around, it is beginning to look like Kim Il Sung's North Korea," chided the party's general secretary, Mr Mike Allen.

For now, Labour is making a virtue of its relative poverty by saying it will use "substantially less" than the €1.57 million budget it is allowed under the Electoral Act.

The party is irritated with Fine Gael, even though it is making little public noise about it so far, for trying to ride two economic horses at once, and staying on none. The front will have to be maintained.

Instead, Labour can be expected to turn the searchlights upon the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, who, it believes, will scupper Bertie Ahern's softly-softly attitude if he can be forced out into the open.

Despite the predictions of many, Mr Quinn has managed to "kill" the one issue that many thought would dominate the campaign: would Labour rule out in advance coalition with Fianna Fáil?

"Some people wanted Labour to sign up with Fine Gael two years ago. Some were really strong on the point. There aren't many around who would say the same today," said one Labour staffer.

Still stunned by the resignation of Mr Bobby Molloy, the Progressive Democrats are desperately trying to raise themselves from the canvas, but the towels are already out in some corners.

Nevertheless, the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, is still a good brand name. Backed by a €570,000 campaign, she will visit the limited number of constituencies where the party has a candidate, and/or a chance.

Last Sunday, the PDs published their manifesto even before the "off" was called:

"You have to get in early. It's hard for a small party to get visibility during a campaign," said one party official.

Despite the lack of attention, the Greens are quietly hoping to add to their two TDs, particularly with Carlow-Kilkenny's Cllr Mary White and Cllr Dan Boyle in Cork South Central.

Some of the current public themes chime with the Greens' creed. In Cork South Central, 16,000 have signed a petition opposing the construction of an incinerator in Cork Harbour.

Nevertheless, it has always been difficult for the Greens to maintain their profile during the hurly-burly of a campaign, and it will be so again this time unless the party's leader, Mr Trevor Sargent, drops his usual public diffidence.

Sinn Féin, on the other hand, has had no shortage of public profile, though the media's attentions have been getting more irksome for some in recent weeks and months.

During the campaign, Sinn Féin will "plug" its best asset, the party president, Mr Gerry Adams, at every opportunity, as it has been doing for months now up and down the country.

Regardless of brand names, all of the political parties will face a difficult time over the coming weeks as they try to re-engage an often comfortable electorate with politics.

"They have been switched off for much of the last five years. We have weeks to get them to turn on to it again. It isn't going to be easy," said one Opposition figure.