The war on Iraq officially started at approximately 2.30 a.m. Irish time yesterday with the unleashing of approximately 40 cruise missiles on Baghdad and its south-eastern suburbs.
The initial phase of the air campaign did not match international expectations in terms of its scale and timing. The objective of this opportunistic and lightning attack, coming a mere 90 minutes after the expiry of the US imposed deadline, was to excise the entire Iraqi leadership in one surgical strike.
Initial US statements indicate that the first night's bombardment was based on CIA intelligence suggesting the likely whereabouts of Saddam Hussein, his sons and a number of top Iraqi military and political figures. Had this mission been accomplished successfully, the US and British governments would have been presented on Day 1 of the war with an unprecedented political and propaganda coup.
The cruise missile attack was launched from one of five aircraft carrier battle groups located in the Persian Gulf at present. These include the USS Theodore Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman battle groups in the eastern Mediterranean and the USS Kittyhawk, Abraham Lincoln and Constellation battle groups currently deployed in the Arabian Sea.
Each of these battle groups consists of approximately eight surface vessels including missile carrying cruisers and destroyers. In addition, they are each accompanied by two Los Angeles class attack submarines capable of launching cruise missiles. Each battle group has approximately 75 operational aircraft at its disposal including US Navy F14 and F18 jet fighters.
The US and British have also built up considerable land-based air power in the region including US F16s at Al Jaber airbase in Kuwait, Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia and most notably B52 bombers in Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford in England.
Complementing these forces are British Tornado Squadrons in Saudi Arabia and at Ali Al Salem in Kuwait. In terms of stealth capability, the US has at its disposal F117 Nighthawk bombers based in El Udeid, Qatar, and B2 bombers on-call in Diego Garcia and on the US mainland.
A number of US F117 stealth aircraft were involved in the initial attacks. These attacks will continue to gain momentum in terms of frequency and the number of targets engaged. This initial phase of the air campaign will depend to a great extent on remote satellite guided munitions such as cruise missiles and on the use of stealth aircraft.
Once Iraq has been stripped of its air defence detection and weapon systems, air superiority will have been achieved and the second phase of the air campaign will start. This will see the deployment of more conventional US Navy F14s, F18s, US Air Force F15s, F16s and British Harriers and Tornado F3s.
The US and British have assembled a vast array of air power in the region. In keeping with precedent and established strategic doctrine the allied powers will maximise the potential of this force. In this way, the air assault on Iraq will soon assume the shock-and-awe proportions so widely predicted in the countdown to war.
As the air campaign approaches maximum intensity, it is likely the ground troops will start their advance on Basra and Baghdad. This concurrent activity represents a different approach to that in the Gulf War in 1991. Then, troops remained static for over 40 days during an intensive air and artillery bombardment of Iraqi targets.
On this occasion, airborne and armoured units will deploy with intensive close air support on a rapid advance through Iraqi territory. In the face of unprecedented air power and a growing ground force, the Iraqis have little to offer in the way of a credible defence. Their own troops are deployed in fixed and static positions consistent with former Warsaw Pact tactical doctrine. They lack the leadership skills, morale and equipment to engage a highly motivated, heavily armed and extremely mobile invader.
The Iraqis may withdraw from the fluid and agile battlefield of the 21st century into a more primitive struggle among the civilian populations of Baghdad and Basra. Or they may simply recognise the overwhelming military odds and surrender. US and British commanders will be hoping for the latter scenario.
Events yesterday show that some elements of the Iraqi regime may be prepared to fight. The firing of what are reported as Scud missiles into Kuwait is a worrying sign of defiance on the part of Saddam's inner circle. The missiles fired were most likely some of the 20 or so reverse-engineered Scud B or Al Hussein missiles unaccounted for in Iraq since the Gulf War.
Given the centralised command structures of the Iraqi military it is likely that such missiles are kept in the hands of the Iraqi Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard in Baghdad and its environs. With a reach of 650km, this would place US and British troops currently concentrated in northern Kuwait within range of Al Hussein missiles. They would also be at risk from Iraqi Al Abbas, Al Samoud and Ababil missiles.
In firing missiles towards Kuwait yesterday, Saddam was targeting troops gathering at their start lines in areas along the DMZ and at US bases in Doha.
If Saddam had succeeded in inflicting large numbers of casualties among coalition troops at this early stage, he would have achieved a political and propaganda coup similar in scale to that attempted by Bush and Blair in the opening salvo of the war.
British and US commanders will be fully aware of this fact and of their collective vulnerability as they wait in their assembly areas for the final order to advance. In this light, and in light of the growing ferocity of the air campaign, the ground assault may well be imminent.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army officer with experience in the Middle East and former Yugoslavia. He is a fellow of the US-based Inter University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society. He currently lectures in the School of Media at DIT