It is unlikely US legislators will support any new global trade agreement they believe sells farmers short when a new US farm bill hangs in the balance, trade analysts said today.
Free-trade advocates this weekend hailed a decision by trade ministers to press ahead with the Doha round of trade talks, which ground to a halt in July.
Pascal Lamy, director-general of the World Trade Organization, has yet to formally relaunch the round, but Europe's top negotiator, Peter Mandelson, said he's "more confident" that a impasse over agricultural subsidies and tariffs may soon be broken.
But Dave Salmonsen of the American Farm Bureau Federation lobbying group, said a Doha deal would be judged on whether it provided US farmers with meaningful access to new markets.
"We know there's going to be lower spending limits on the domestic support programs . . . but we need to have the balance as far as looking for how producers will be affected," he said. Other farm groups were less confident a deal could help their members.
"The free trade agenda has not been beneficial to US farmers and ranchers," said Tom Buis, president of the National Farmers Union.
Congress does not negotiate trade deals, but it ratifies or rejects agreements.
This year, US lawmakers also will revamp farm legislation, which is of keen interest abroad since a new law will set farm supports that developing nations are eager to see reduced.
Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns is scheduled to unveil the administration's much-anticipated proposal for the 2007 farm bill on Wednesday.
Analysts said they don't believe the recent developments on Doha would sway lawmakers - some of whom are fiercely protective of agricultural subsidies - one way or the other.