TURKEY: It is two days now since the Turkish parliament voted down a Bill to up to 62,000 US soldiers to begin deploying along its 218 mile border with Iraq, and Ankara and Washington still seem too shocked to know what to do next.
The US's top commander in Europe, Gen James Jones, did his best to shrug off the setback to Washington's military plans, saying: "we're going to be successful regardless of what we're limited to."
But, with ships moored off Turkey's south coast now showing signs of moving off towards the Suez Canal to join the 150,000-strong US force based in Kuwait, top US politicians still seem to be hoping Turkey can be persuaded to change its mind.
Following a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State, Mr Colin Powell on Sunday, Turkey's Prime Minister, Mr Abdullah Gul issued a statement saying the two sides had agreed "to keep open the channels of communication."
In reality, though, Ankara is giving off ambiguous signals. On Sunday, Turkey's Foreign Minister stated that his government would present parliament with a new Bill on deployment later this week. But he appeared to be contradicted yesterday by parliamentary speaker and Deputy Prime Minister Mr Bulent Arinc, who said "it would not be proper to bring the Bill back to parliament in the same form."
Analysts had been predicting a new vote later this week. But, faced by deafening silence in Ankara, they now suspect a second Bill will have to wait until after March 9th, when Mr Tayyip Erdogan, chairman of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, is expected to be elected deputy in a by-election in the southeastern province of Siirt.
Mr Erdogan was banned from standing in elections last November because of a previous conviction for "incitement to religious hatred", but has since been reinstated as a parliamentary candidate.
Widely considered a more pragmatic politician than Mr Gul, he has been the AKP's most outspoken proponent of co-operation with Washington.
As Turkey's government prepared yesterday to push its annual budget through parliament, the most pressing issue here seems to be the likely loss of an estimated $30 billion US economic aid package that Washington was offering in return for Turkey's co-operation.
As the Turkish stock exchange slumped yesterday by over 10 per cent and Turkey's currency by 5 per cent against the dollar, Mr Erdogan appealed for calm. Annual economic statistics published today show Turkey's weakness goes well beyond a knee-jerk reaction to the unexpected rejection of US deployment.
Interest rates, which had finally been brought under control after the massive recession of February 2001, show signs of rising again, and slowing Turkish growth is likely to reduce predicted tax returns.
"Statistics suggest that the government will need to borrow a lot of international money this year", says economist Mr Deniz Gokce.
Kuwait had said it would consider accepting the US troops designated for Turkey if Washington asked, the Kuwaiti Defence Minister said.
"If they present a formal request we are willing," Defence Minister Sheikh Jaber al-Hamad al-Sabah told reporters.