US/IRAQ: President Bush has blithely ignored the salient military facts and glibly glossed over the absence of a timetable for a withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, writes Tom Clonan
President Bush's 35-page Strategy for Victory document released on Wednesday contains little or no detail as to how America intends to successfully conclude its military intervention in Iraq. Military plans or strategies normally contain - at a minimum - three key components, namely "situation", "mission" and "execution".
Under the heading "situation", military commanders weigh those assets available to them on the battlefield against the threat posed by the enemy.
In terms of fledgling Iraqi forces, the US administration claimed this week that up to 120 Iraqi police and army "battalions" were now operational in the fight against the insurgency.
This total, comprising 212,000 Iraqi personnel, as cited by Mr Bush on Wednesday would represent a dramatic increase over an original Iraqi force of five such battalions in July 2004.
This claim contrasts sharply with the views of the US's most senior military commanders in Iraq. Eight weeks previously, appearing before sworn hearings of the Senate and House Armed Services Committees in Washington in late September, generals George Casey and John Abizaid stated that the total number of "viable" combat-ready Iraqi battalions consisted of just one - a unit of approximately 700 men.
In terms of US forces, Iraq is currently garrisoned by approximately 160,000 troops drawn from units that are on their second or even third rotation to combat since the invasion began.
The US 3rd Infantry Division is currently deployed to Baghdad, with the 101st Airborne deployed to the volatile cities of Balad, Kirkuk, Tikrit and Samarra.
The 2nd Marine Expeditionary Force is deployed to Fallujah and Ramadi.
The current prolonged deployment to Iraq has placed such frontline regular units under unprecedented pressure. In the absence of a draft, recruitment for all branches of the US military is down, with some services failing to meet minimum targets.
This situation is compounded by the attrition rate in Iraq. Thus far, 2,113 US soldiers have been killed in Iraq. A total of almost 16,000 US troops have also been seriously injured - many of them amputees - and medically evacuated from Iraq. Taken in tandem, these figures would represent approximately 10 per cent of the US's total frontline combat strength.
In terms of the insurgency, it continues unabated. US fatality figures for October and November this year number approximately 180 - just 20 fewer than the same period last year, at the height of the US assault on Fallujah.
The intensifying insurgency has claimed the lives of almost 2,500 Iraqi police and soldiers this year alone compared to just over 1,000 in 2004. There are also signs that the insurgency is spreading to other parts of Iraq, with an increased number of attacks and insurgent activity in the Polish and British-controlled areas around Al Kut and Basra.
In the face of such a dire "situation", Mr Bush's "mission" statement is simple and unequivocal. He states that the administration will accept nothing less than "a complete victory in Iraq", an Iraq that is "peaceful, united, stable and secure".
In terms of "execution", Mr Bush's strategy for victory in Iraq contains no detail whatsoever.
Blithely ignoring the salient military facts on Wednesday, he glibly glossed over the absence of a timetable for a phased withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, by conflating that notion with defeat or retreat. "America will not run in the face of car bombers and assassins so long as I am your commander-in-chief," he stated.
Unfortunately, for his troops, along with Iraqi Kurds, Shias and Sunnis alike, what remains painfully obvious is that the Bush administration simply does not have a coherent exit strategy.