THE US Secretary of State, Mr Warren Christopher, is in favour of taking the draft test ban treaty on to the UN General Assembly next month, his spokesman, Mr Nicholas Burns, said last night.
That is despite India's de facto veto of the draft earlier yesterday that put an end to two and a half years of negotiations for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) under the auspices of the UN Disarmament Conference.
"We think we have done as much as we can do at the conference on disarmament," he said, after the Geneva talks failed to secure the unanimous support needed for the draft to go on to the general assembly.
But he added: "The United States believes that a comprehensive test ban is still within reach. We expect that the treaty will be agreed to in New York and signed by heads of state this autumn."
Stephen Young writes: Western envoys had expected India to formally block the treaty.
The Indian envoy, Ms Arundhati Ghose, had said on Tuesday she would not allow the committee to send the treaty text to the full Conference on Disarmament (CD).
"We're going to get a lovely blockage by India," one Western negotiator predicted.
India has long wanted substantial changes in the text of the treaty, particularly on commitments to a time bound framework for nuclear disarmament, but had said it would not prevent agreement. Now, however, India says it will block the treaty because of the text's entry into force (EIF) formula, the provision for how the treaty will take effect.
Under the current text, the five nuclear weapons states and India, Pakistan and Israel - the threshold nuclear states - are required to ratify the treaty before it enters into force. India says this impinges on its national sovereignty.
The simplest solution would be to alter the EIF formula so that India is not required to sign. However, Russia and China appear adamant about keeping the current formula, and the British government, which took the lead in the recent creation of formulas requiring India's signature, might oppose changes as well.
While all the negotiators support the goal of getting the five nuclear states and the other three states on board, most opposed requiring their signature, particularly after India said it would not sign. This led some diplomats to question the commitment of those skates to the test ban itself, since this all or nothing approach seemed needlessly high risk.
As India's intent to block became clear, countries began considering options.
The most likely scenario is that "friends of the treaty" will bring it directly to the UN. The UN could then approve the CTBT and open it or for signature. This route, however, has no guarantee of success. Without the CD's formula approval, any treaty brought to the UN would be open to amendment.
There are two possible solutions. In one, the nuclear weapons states could agree to stronger language about nuclear disarmament in the preamble of the CTBT, a move that would answer many of the non aligned countries' concerns. That seems unlikely.
A second option would be to take steps outside the treaty, but still on nuclear disarmament. This option was highlighted by the report issued yesterday by the Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons which was set up by the Labour government shortly before its defeat in March.
Stephen Young is a senior analyst at the British American Security Information Council, an international research organisation based in London and Washington. He has just returned from the negotiations in Geneva.
. Nuclear powers should cut their weapons stockpiles as a matter of urgency, according to the Canberra commission report. It also raised doubts about the control and security of Russia's nuclear arsenal and said the danger of terrorist groups acquiring nuclear weapons or material "is a growing threat to the international community".
The 120 page report, which was presented to the Australian Prime Minister, Mr John Howard, yesterday called on Britain, China, France, Russia and the US to commit to the elimination of their nuclear weapons.