Ulster Unionist Council delegates were today gathering in Belfast for a crucial vote that could decide the future of the Belfast Agreement and the Ulster Unionist Party.
The outcome of the leadership election, which Mr David Trimble has depicted as a battle between "old unionism and new unionism", is likely to be in the UUP leader's favour, but what is critical is the extent of his expected victory.
The British and Irish governments will be awaiting today's result with some apprehension, conscious that if Mr Trimble's opponent, the Rev Martin Smyth polls over 42 per cent of the 858 possible votes it could spell the end of any further political risk-taking by the UUP leader.
Equally, they are concerned that a motion from London-based PR consultant Mr David Burnside, trying to link the retention of the RUC title to the resumption of the executive, could also destroy any chance of the UUP and Sinn Fein finding an accommodation over how to break the decommissioning deadlock.
The UUP leadership was last night devising an amendment to try to ensure the party, as one senior UUP figure put it, would not "be handcuffed to a motion that denies us any room for political manoeuvre". The Strangford MP, Mr John Taylor, while saying he would vote for Mr Trimble, also said he would vote for the Burnside motion.
Mr Trimble yesterday tried to persuade him of the merits of the amendment, but Mr Taylor would not reveal whether he might change his mind, saying "I am supporting the Burnside motion, as of now."
Mr Smyth said yesterday he had a "50-50 chance" of winning the leadership election.
The former minister and Trimble ally, Mr Michael McGimpsey, said that as about one-third of the party was opposed to the Belfast Agreement since it was signed in 1998, Mr Smyth must poll over 42 per cent to damage the leader. The 42 per cent figure referred to the number of council members who last November opposed the UUP entering into government with Sinn Fein ahead of IRA decommissioning
Mr Trimble appeared confident, almost buoyant yesterday. The two candidates made a head-to-head appearance on UTV last night and it was generally agreed Mr Trimble fared best, delivering assured, more concise answers.
Unionist heavyweights Mr Jeffrey Donaldson and former leader Lord Molyneaux have declared for Mr Smyth, although they did not attend his press conference yesterday. Mr Smyth, a former leader of the Orange Order, also received strong endorsement from the Grand Master of the Orange Order, Mr Robert Saulters.
A press conference where the Belfast Lord Mayor, Mr Robert Stoker, was due to announce that he would be opposing Mr Smyth for the nomination to run in South Belfast in the next general election was cancelled yesterday because pro-agreement campaigners feared this could rebound against Mr Trimble.
