Iraq: As violence in Iraq intensifies, the prospects for the elections planned for next month look more and more bleak, writes Michael Jansen.
The continuing violence in Iraq is underscoring warnings from the US Central Intelligence Agency, the Defence Intelligence Agency, and the State Department that the US and its partners are not winning the war against insurgents seeking to torpedo next month's parliamentary elections.
While intelligence agency officials, speaking anonymously, said the war against the resistance had not been lost and the election could still be held, the CIA director, Mr Porter Goss, has told President Bush that US and Iraqi government forces had not been able to halt the intimidation of voters and candidates or attacks on election officials. The US and its allies have also failed to create and exploit divisions amongst the secular and religious groups of rebels with the aim of undermining the insurgency. Instead, factions with very different agendas are mounting joint operations.
Yesterday, as the election commission prepared to release the names of the 6,400 candidates standing on 109 lists for the 275-member parliament, voters had no assurance that they would be able to cast their ballots in safety. Iraq's 115,000-strong police and National Guard are in no position to ensure security at the country's 30,000 polling stations. Of the 60 per cent who report for duty, many hide their faces behind masks. By contrast, insurgents, who are better armed and organised than Iraq's security forces, carry out daylight raids without concealing their identities and melt back into the populace.
Last week, Lieut Gen Lance Smith, the deputy commander of US forces in the Middle East, said that the Iraqi resistance was making more effective use of roadside bombs to disrupt US military operations and the flow of supplies. He said, "The enemy is very smart," and adapted to fit changing circumstances.
With the parliamentary poll just six weeks away, the US has 148,000 troops in Iraq, up from 138,000, and another 2,000 are expected to arrive soon.
The additional deployment, providing armour for patrol vehicles, and developing fresh tactics to keep up with those of the insurgents are expected to raise the cost of the war by $80 billion, or 25 per cent, during fiscal 2005. This is on top of the extra $25 billion needed to finish off 2004.
According to Prof Anthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, the cost of the war through the end of this year will reach $128 billion, excluding replacement of equipment and raising additional troops. By the close of 2005, expenditure could reach $212-232 billion.