If the larger political parties thought they could start the new political season with controlled, positive PR through well choreographed think-ins, their ambitions were short-lived. Cork, Westport and Sligo are now just a blur, writes Damian Loscher, managing director TNS mrbi
Carefully devised media plans and political strategies were shredded when, to everyone's surprise, Mary Harney announced that she was resigning as tánaiste and leader of the PDs.
The relatively painless ascension of Michael McDowell appeared to signal calm ahead, although the new leader wasted no time in setting out the PD stall in advance of the next election by immediately hoisting the low- tax flag above South Frederick Street.
In keeping with the frantic pace of political developments since the Dáil reconvened, a new crisis quickly emerged when allegations surfaced that the Taoiseach had received cash gifts from friends when minister for finance. More was to follow. All of a sudden the Harney resignation was very old news.
These recent developments serve as a colourful backdrop to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll conducted on October 9th and 10th amongst a national sample of 1,000 electors.
When the previous Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll was conducted back in May, the results were less than encouraging for Fianna Fáil. Support had fallen to its lowest point in more than 20 years.
In much the same way that the drop in support for Fianna Fáil in May went against the conventional wisdom that says economic success translates into support for the government of the day, the increase in support for Fianna Fáil in today's poll is, perhaps, not what many would have predicted. Even the Taoiseach is on record as accepting his reputation had been damaged by the controversy.
As table III shows, support for Fianna Fáil has climbed eight points in this latest poll. With a 39 per cent rating, Fianna Fáil enjoys a higher level of support today than at any time since the 2002 general election.
These poll findings will no doubt shift the focus of the debate on to how Fianna Fáil managed to dodge the bullet.
Certainly Mr Ahern appealed to our tolerance and understanding of the human condition. Placing the loans against the background of a personal crisis gave voters the permission they needed to excuse Mr Ahern his transgression, the sub-text being that we have all struggled through relationship difficulties at some time in our lives.
And there is some evidence to suggest a section of the electorate empathised with his predicament. The poll findings show an above-average lift in support for Fianna Fáil among currently or formerly married voters.
Tempted as we are to jump to conclusions, we must be cautious when attempting to identify the reasons for the rebound in support for Fianna Fáil.
It is possible that recent events did damage the Government but the damage was outweighed by the benefits of not having to deal with thorny questions about the health service, crime and management of the public finances.
It would seem that much of Fianna Fáil's gain has been at the expense of Fine Gael and Labour. Table III shows support for Fine Gael down two points to 26 per cent. Labour has dropped four points and now attracts just 11 per cent of first preference votes.
Fine Gael will be disappointed that the momentum it enjoyed coming into this poll has not been maintained, especially when the political chips seemed to be falling in its favour. However Fine Gael should focus on the positive and recognise that 26 per cent support is higher than the party achieved at any time between 2003 and 2005 and that the longer-term trend remains upwards.
Labour, on the other hand, will struggle to find any silver lining to these latest poll results. A drop of four points is a significant setback. Labour has given up all of the ground made since the 2002 general election.
Pat Rabbitte and his party will no doubt take a long and hard look at these latest poll findings. One area which should be explored is the decision to join forces with Fine Gael at such an early stage. If Enda Kenny becomes the default spokesman for the alternative government, Labour will surely struggle to keep a high profile.
Much comment has been made about the performance of the Opposition in recent weeks. At first glance, satisfaction with the performance of party leaders looks to have increased, with Mr Kenny up two points and Mr Rabbitte up seven points.
Intriguingly, these increases in leader satisfaction have not had the desired impact on party support. Perhaps the explanation lies in the fact that dissatisfaction has also increased, up seven points for Mr Kenny and up four points for Mr Rabbitte. This polarising of opinion raises questions around how Opposition leaders performed.
Criticism was levied against Opposition deputies for asking too many questions and thereby allowing the Taoiseach to wriggle off the hook by choosing to answer the questions he wanted to answer.
Opposition party leaders were unconvinced and unconvincing in their call for Mr Ahern to resign. Importantly, they hedged their bets, not knowing whether it would better suit their purposes to have Mr Ahern resign or to have him stay on as leader, limping into the next general election.
Needless to say, the reaction of Mr McDowell to events as they unfolded was watched closely. A baptism of fire for the new PD leader, by any standards. Today's poll findings appear to suggest the PDs have emerged from the recent turmoil as well as could have been expected.
Caught between a rock and a hard place, they chose a hard place, reckoning the rock would leave them isolated and at sea.
In the end the PDs may have read the mood of the electorate correctly, sensing that they would not be rewarded for exploiting the Taoiseach's vulnerability. With 4 per cent of the vote, the PDs are holding their own in a historical context, and have actually gained one point since the May 2006 poll.
For the other smaller parties and Independents, only modest changes in party support have been registered. This is perhaps not surprising as they have been drowned out by the media noise.
With Northern Ireland back on the radar, Sinn Féin may recover its one-point fall when the next poll is conducted, while the Greens will be looking to capitalise on the growing interest in the environment.
It is too early to even surmise how the new 2007 government will be comprised. This latest poll shows that the balance of power has shifted once again, but not to a point where the current Government would be sure of securing a majority if these poll results were to be repeated on election day.
The 2007 election race is still wide open, although Fianna Fáil must be feeling confident with a healthy Exchequer surplus and budget day looming.
Fine Gael and Labour will have to win the policy debate and both parties must be careful not to water down their policies to avoid conflict or contradiction.
For Labour in particular, maintaining strong identity will be critical to reconnecting with its core voter.